Regardless of earnings, and regardless of where people bought, I think things will be OK here. I don't see the world exploding anytime soon, so I think the general path of growth and PD appreciation will continue. Of course that is just my humble opinion, but too many people go nuts at price fluctuations, when A LOT of those fluctuations are just the results of the scammers playing their little Wall Street games. Patience is the key.
My Lexus 300 ES had 320,000 miles on it when I sold it to Obama, and it never had anything close to major repair work. So yes, I do think cars last longer these days. On the other hand, people can't and don't work on cars as much as they did 15 to 20+ years ago, so they often junk them earlier rather than pay a fortune to a mechanic. I guess those two factors balance each other out somewhat, but the longer lasting vehicle factor predominates.
I am also inclined to believe the cars are built better. The 2000's brought the rise of Toyota and Honda. People traded in their poorly built GMs and Fords and bought Japanese. The cars have 10-12 year warranties on them!
If people own cars that are old and broken, they have no choice but to find a way to finance a new purchase. An old broken down car doesn't get registered. An old, still operable car does get registered. And since records are being made, I am inclined to believe the cars were better built in the first place. So cars are lasting longer than they used to. Either that or there are onehell of a lot more people riding bicycles these days...
So accoring to that line of reasoning, we need to watch for the trend in hourly rates for a mechanics to fix old cars.
just my guess but there's a very good chance that there will be growing numbers of back yard mechanics in the OECD countries over the next few years maybe help keep a lid on labor rates for car repairs.
Go long duct Tape!
Thanks but 3M not a pure enough play for Duct Tape exposure.
plus, should the SHTF, 3M is a paper derivative.
Heck, I'm not even sure I'd trust an adhesive and tape ETF should one come out as you can never be sure about the quality of the inventory.
Ditto for Duct tape futures.
Then there's the issue of deliverablity and counterparty risk.
So you gotta get physical and take delivery now!
I personally took delivery this weekend of 2 more cases of some cheap Chinese duct tape that's OK in a pinch but nothin like the old stuff from the 70's.
Seems some of that new foreign stuff has a funny smell to it so I kinda wonder what they be using for adhesive.
That said, it should still be good for barter and that way I can keep the good stuff for my own use.
<<Heck, if Cuba is any indicator, what with all those cars from the 1950s still rolling around - we're screwed! >>
You may be onto something.
With Obama-A-La Castro working his magic, the auto fleet might well get a lot older!!
But it's not all bad as there would also be lot less older vehicles being scrapped so less Pd from recycling.
My last Honda lasted 22 years. Sold my 23 year old MB during the cash for clunkers. Would have kept it but would have failed the emission test - needed major engine work and just not worth it.
IMO auto growth will come from absolute car growth in emerging markets not in US and EUR where middle class and population are stable and where for the most part new cars just replace old ones.
Some services claim 90% recovery of PM from cc.
Now of course not all cc end up being recycled but as price rises and junk yards wise up , PMs in cc will be close to self replacing. Right now there is about $80-$120 worth of PM in a cc. A cc is just about the easiest thing to remove.
So net new cars (i.e emerging economies) will be much more important than just replacement economies.