They are burning NOT mining in SA and yet prices are ... DROPPING???
Man burnt to death at Amplats strike
46 minutes ago
A man has burnt to death and another shot and wounded at Nkaneng informal settlement near Rustenburg where 400 mineworkers have gathered, police say.
Miners to lay murder charges against police
Amplats strike 'matter of life or death'
Fired miners promise to fight to the death
The market has clearly not focused on the future impact of the supply disruption in S.A. IMO, the disconnect is not driven by manipulation. It's driven by the fear that the European slowdown will spiral down and bring other economies down with it. Is China OK? Unclear. I hope so, but the most recent numbers do not look great. Maybe more stimulus in China will help, and maybe some of their auto production numbers will pick up in Q4, as is seasonally typical.
I'm still confident that we will see a significant deficit in Pd this year and into next. But if China goes into a recession, rather than a modest slow-down in growth, who knows about late next year and beyond. Many investors are waiting to see which direction China will turn before committing capital to industrial metals. S.A., however bad, is viewed as a temporary situation, despite the probability that supply disruptions will continue is some form for a long time to come.
I'm still bullish on Pd. If Chinese auto production picks up, as it should, I'd expect to see an increase in ETF investments, as well as articles declaring PGM deficits. But so long as large investors keep focused on the swirling eddies in Europe, the luster of PGMs will continue to be missed.
I am totally convinced that they are. It just doesn't make sense that pt/pd can be dropping in the face of surging US vehicle production, ok in China, off in Europe but still not the end of the world, European stimulus, the Fed's QE3, new Chinese leaders coming in and vowing major stimulous, inflation and of course our buddies frolicking around in South Africa. And let's remember there isn't that bloddy much of it.
If pt/pd are going down in the face of such a positive environment I shudder to think where they would be otherwise!