The market has clearly not focused on the future impact of the supply disruption in S.A. IMO, the disconnect is not driven by manipulation. It's driven by the fear that the European slowdown will spiral down and bring other economies down with it. Is China OK? Unclear. I hope so, but the most recent numbers do not look great. Maybe more stimulus in China will help, and maybe some of their auto production numbers will pick up in Q4, as is seasonally typical.
I'm still confident that we will see a significant deficit in Pd this year and into next. But if China goes into a recession, rather than a modest slow-down in growth, who knows about late next year and beyond. Many investors are waiting to see which direction China will turn before committing capital to industrial metals. S.A., however bad, is viewed as a temporary situation, despite the probability that supply disruptions will continue is some form for a long time to come.
I'm still bullish on Pd. If Chinese auto production picks up, as it should, I'd expect to see an increase in ETF investments, as well as articles declaring PGM deficits. But so long as large investors keep focused on the swirling eddies in Europe, the luster of PGMs will continue to be missed.
IMO this is not about SA, it is about global demand = autos=economies and there the news is not good and daily getting worse. If Europe is tanking and US is stagnant who is going to buy Chinese goods? Every update I see shows China GDP growing less and less. China stores and warehouses packed with unsold goods. This applies to Pd not to Gold which has a very different dynamic. IMO demand is falling faster than supply is falling. And supply issues could be resolved in a much quicker time frame than demand issues. SA might be back on line in 3 months. Economies may (especially Eurozone) may not recover for years.
If you have BLOOMBERG TV watch the white headline box in the lower left. Good news is few and far between.
Reason to own PAL is dropping costs and increasing production. Any upwards PD move is icing, not the cake.
Pd is climbing at a good rate, go take a look at the chart of $pall, the average for the quarter is now at almost 621$ and will cross the year average at 639$ in less than 10 trading days in my opinion which is very bullish. The Month average is at $661...for October only we are at 656$ so far.
I think you are too close to the daily numbers and do not see the broader picture, all due respect. Since SA started about 2 months ago palladium jumped from $580~ to now $660 for the month. It is a huge reversal in price/trend and should be followed by a period of consolidation or plateau to shoot up again soon when the real extent of the palladium deficit will be known. It takes time...
This reversal is even more visible with platinum.
Auto industry is resilient and it seems that we are seeing some bounce here and there...
The real question is what production will come from Russia? Hard to speculate but they have also problem there to produce and the state stock is almost depleted, not sure yet?
One day at the time but so far precious metal seems the place to be. Gold platinum palladium in particular.
As for PAL....we are about to get an update and we will go from there. Cautiously optimistic
I am totally convinced that they are. It just doesn't make sense that pt/pd can be dropping in the face of surging US vehicle production, ok in China, off in Europe but still not the end of the world, European stimulus, the Fed's QE3, new Chinese leaders coming in and vowing major stimulous, inflation and of course our buddies frolicking around in South Africa. And let's remember there isn't that bloddy much of it.
If pt/pd are going down in the face of such a positive environment I shudder to think where they would be otherwise!