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North American Palladium Ltd. Message Board

  • pacenet_2000 pacenet_2000 Feb 6, 2013 1:12 PM Flag

    Why would anyone sell PAL for ncikels and dimes!

    After what we have been through, and how long we have waited for this surge, why sell PAL for only a few cents profit when we are looking here at potentially dollars! I have been studying up and now think PAL will easily go to 3, (unless the moose attack the mines or it rains again), and probably to 5.

    The winds are at our back and surging. Never sell in these conditions. We will crusie to 2, hold a bit, and then barrel along to 3! Everything is now going our way, the Fed, the economy, South Africa, Russia,surging car production, etc. etc.

    Even though I am in the green now, I am holding!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "and probably to 5."

      What assumptions (oz, cost, Pd price?) did you use to get to this number and in what time frame? Doesn't help us much to just throw out a number.

      • 1 Reply to bellbell63
      • You and I approach things from vastly different perspectives. That $5 I through out is based on the macro environmental factors.

        # 1.) 38 major countries are now pumping money. Beside the Fed, Japan alone is tageting to get inflation up and thus their yen is dropping. Bottom line: there is a ton of cheap money out there and the investment world is awash in it.

        # 2.) The Bond bubble is starting to pop. The Bond King himself, Bill Gross of Pimpco, has been loudly and publicy advocating going into gold;which to me is pretty much the same as saying platinum and palladium in this context. Returns are so pathic and risks so high in bonds that stocks look good.

        # 3.) There is a stock shortage of high quality companies and they are "fairly valued". Remember a lot of the blue chips have been buying their stocks back. Thus money coming out of bonds increasingly will be going into smaller cap stocks because they will have more potential. Also, per #2 investors will be looking at metals and pt/pd is now on the media radars. With PAL and SWC you get the best of both worlds: metals and stock with great potential.

        # 4.) The Russians don;t seem to be producing as much pd in that it is a by-product of their nickel production. More importantly they don't seem to be selling.

        # 5.) Auto and vehicle production is surging in the US, will be up 10% alone this year and China is not that far behind. Ok Europe is lagging but they use more diesal and platinum. But this all still is very,very positive for palladium.

        # 6.) The new stricter pollution control standards in Europe go into effect. China will also be greaterly increasing their standards.

        # 7.) The South African pt/pd mining situation is still very bad with water shortages, electricity shortages, shortages of skilled technicians and of course the ever present problems of a very poor work farce: drugs, AIDS, abseetism with ever rising demands, housing, schools, hospitals, and of course wages. Bottom line: their costs are sky-rocketing and production will be dropping. I wil say that we have already seen "peak production" of platinum in SA.

        # 8.) Swiss capital controls. The Swiss are frantic to stop the rise of their franc. They have tried deficit spending, market measures, negative interest rates to curtail the demand for francs to no avail. The latest measure on the table: outright capital controls. No one ever believed it would come to this but this is how desperate things have become. Switzerland, as you know, is one of the main trading centers for palladium, especially with the Russians.

        # 9.) Their are no major crisis in the world right now and the markets are stable.

        Thus, unless PAL really, really screws up again, they should be swept up in this great tsumani that is coming and rise so high purly because they are only one of two palladium mines in safe, secure, productive North America.

        Ok, I admit, 3 is possible and maybe I am very optimistic with $5. But, based upon all the above, do you think I am really am that far off with this scenario?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I estimate PAL will need to raise ~$30M, how 'bout you guys?

      • 3 Replies to jmsmttly
      • I've been thinking anywhere between $30-$60 MM, depending on how much expense is left to finish LDI-phase 1, how much work is happening/planned for regarding Vezza's issues, and how aggressively they wish to pursue other zones. Could be less depending on whether or not Pd prices hold up or continue up. It's prudent to keep at least 3+ months worth of cash (or credit line) on hand as a safety net.

        The timing is the biggest question mark for me. A decently negotiated sale of gold assets could sharply reduce these numbers, as well as push out timing. Pd above $750 helps.

        We should have a much better handle on the expected expenses on the 22nd, provided that guidance will accompany the annual results, as Profit-times alluded to. Hopefully, nothing will pop up regarding financing between now and then.

      • It is not the amount which is important but how you came up with this amount? tell me about your calculation and based on what?

        Thank you in advance

        Good luck

      • YES ME RAZE 30 MILLYON ALSEW.

    • Pace, you more thn most, know what will happen when disappointing news comes out on Vezza sale. This will cast a pall over stock until financing and future capex issues are clarified. Very sincere about $1.30 potential, if bad news is bad enough. Delays in getting info out are never, ever positive. Silence, especially from opaque trustless managers is anything but golden. I want pirates before this all shar=kes out, but am less confident by the minute. Even with this in front of us, we may hit your ultimate targets this year (FWIW), but there could be some significant turbulence between here and there. Pigs get fat, pirates get fatter, but hogs get slaughtered. Be careful here!!! Aye!

    • learn to take profits

      • 1 Reply to paulssgs
      • Pacenet sold out at a large loss around July 2012 last year after saying he was "long" and then saw the stock going to 2.28 and started to turn negative again when PAL deeped again to 1.15!
        Talking about illogical trading...

        He has changed jacket so many times it is not even funny anymore...

        When I read that from him I am quite puzzled but he has some good posts so regarding palladium in general and seems pretty honest man so, when he uses only one name. Wonder how many other boulmichon he has?

        Good luck,

 
PAL
0.300.00(-0.07%)2:28 PMEDT

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