I know the feeling of missing out on selling at the top or within a few % of it and it used to also keep me in a stock when I should have been selling (folding). Some may question whether if they lighten up now is a good decision because PAL has already bled today quite heavily. I think there is still room for it to go short term.
As posted in my other thread called "Abehaus is sold out" I did quite a good job at calling today's action. I wrote at 1.84 in the early moments of trading that "Short term I see it retracing to the 1.88, maybe 1.90" . Well it hovered around 1.88 and 1.89 for some time today and looks like it is finishing on a weak note back down at 1.84, if it finishes below 1.84 today it might be another 6-10 cents down tomorrow. 1.84 is a crucial level because on last Wednesday the low for the day when it had its spike was 1.84 I recall. (The 5 day chart on yahoo only shows 1.87 being the low but it was 1.84, also for today the 1D shows 1.82 as the low and the 5D show 1.83 as the low, weird stuff...).
In addition to my own thinking I want to draw people's attention to that Motley Fool article "Are Short Sellers On to Something at North American Palladium?" published here (yahoo).
What is the purpose of someone writing up that story ("article"). IMO it is a vested interest that wants PAL lower either to cover shorts or more likely to buy back shares at lower levels that currently. I think it is someone trying to go long at lower prices because being a short and putting out such info could be seen as market manipulation because of the direct link to the persons position. This kind of propaganda doesnt work on all of us but it does on some people and that is why I see a further downside risk to PAL right here, not based on technical or fundamental analysis but on a psychological basis (market condition and event as I think of it).
Here is a reminder of what I wrote about 5hrs ago:
"I sold out near the top and PAL is looking like it is rolling over today. Volume was fading Thursday and Friday after a spike on Wednesday and the traders are now scrambling to take their profits off the table. In my experience the region around $1.75 should offer support but it will be a sticky path down there and should take a week or maybe even 2 weeks.
Short term I see it retracing to the 1.88, maybe 1.90 level so if anyone is thinking of taking profits off the table now at 1.84 might have a few more cents left as new investors to PAL will see 1.85-1.90 as a bargain seen as it traded as high as 1.98 recently and will assume that it will continue to rally based on the chart (a fundamental trait I noticed is that people project up and down trends to go on forever when looking at a chart)
Long term; there is nothing wrong holding onto PAL for 1-3 years as a buy and hold, but there is a clear retracement due in my opinion and others agree as well and why lose out on a trading opportunity when it presents itself. Time is of the essence in trading.
everything is looking a bit tired. Especially true of miners across the board. Even Pall and SWC beginning to look tired. Additionally I expect nothing probusiess to come from Washington speech tomm. That said, the State of Union may spur inflation related buying (I know I may be grasping for straws). Conviction is dissipating quickly out there. Be careful!
I think you will see an similar speech to Obama's inauguration with the same talking points, it should have the same kind of effect on the market. Seen as it is early in his 2nd term I do not think he will come to us with bad news.
I sold some at $1.90 but still have a nice few thousand. Actually, if there is a drop below $1.70 I will start buying. We have some big events on the radar that could move PAL a lot. I have seen this before; just when things look negative - POW - PAL surges!
I believe you but I do not consider one day trading lower and a motley fool propaganda piece to be things looking negative, not yet, it is too soon, I think it is only the beginning of a down cycle short term ;)