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North American Palladium Limited Şirket Message Board

  • tristrem tristrem Feb 28, 2013 1:46 PM Flag

    Motley Fool Article Uses the Term "Takeover Target"

    For what it's worth.

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    • No question NAP is a Takeover target.

      Just like a number of other junior miners.

      I'm pretty sure that at 1.50, there would be a lot of interest but as anyone should know, no one could get at it that price right now.

      A Takeover premium would be needed to get it done and what that premium might be is the only question.

      Any number of acquisitors could be waiting in the wings and ready to make a competing offer once one is put on the table.

      personally, I don't see NAP going for less than 3 and if a bidding war erupts and it coincides with a rising price of Pd over a period of 2 or 3 months, who knows where the dust might settle.

      BB, I disagree with you that this is not worthy of discussion or that such discussions sets up false expectations.

      It's the reality.

      The statement's quoted from the CC re expressions of interest from other firms was unusual.

      Also inappropriate but that's beside the point.

      Bottom line, and for the reasons cited above, the plausbility of other firms kicking the tires is not all that far fetched given NAP's current valuation.

      As to such discussions setting up false expectations, I would hope we are all adults here and do our own DD.

      That said, 1.50 would appear to be a bit of a floor price for NAP given my thoughts on the TO possibilities.

      Of course, this is all based on what we know now about NAP's current prospects as well as related financial issues which can change in a heartbeat.

      As can the price of Pd.

      • 1 Reply to winsabokk
      • "The statement's quoted from the CC re expressions of interest from other firms was unusual."

        I've seen it before. I hold HTSI and they recently said they had discussions with two possible buyers and that they hired JPM to advise them. Stock took a jump on that news and had been slowly and steadily climbing since then, IMO 90% chance will be bought but not at a huge premium, maybe 10-15%.

        Anyway back to NAP. Putting myself in a buyers shoes I have two conflicting thoughts:

        - I would want to be at the table now in any discussion of financing as I might be the inheritor of that decision. Or they (PAL) may come up with a financing plan and give me a chance to offer a firm alternative before they proceed. A deep pocket buyer may not need any financing.
        - On the other hand I would be hesitant to act now because of the $500-$600 estimated Q2,Q3 cost and of course Vezza "situation".

        I don't see a bidding war - remember any buyer also takes on about 100M of debt and an operational situation that is murkey. IMO max would be 2.50.

        And it is quite appropriate to talk about any takeover. Anyone is free not to read it. The whole world is not just RSI.

        FYI I know from telephone call I had with Camilla that they do read this board. She mentioned something only a reader of this board would know. So at a minimum be polite.

    • Motley Fool should have said "takeunder" not takeover