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North American Palladium Ltd. Message Board

  • lvlarry_75 lvlarry_75 May 8, 2013 1:28 PM Flag

    Sell off volume...

    The sell off volume the last two days was only about 15 million shares, that is not even 10% of the total shares out there. In the face of the bad earnings, downward revisions, analysts severe downgrades, and negative sentiment, not even 10% of share volume traded during the rout. Looks like most bad news is currently baked into pps, all except bk, or mine expansion delay, and even some of this could be baked in. Not many people left to sell at these prices. I think we will get a bounce into the 1.20's soon, and then a retest of the lows, imo. There will be a lot of sellers in the 1.20's, so it may take awhile to get back to the 1.30's, imo.

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    • Both your posts make sense to me lvlarry, though you can never tell what monkey wrench may be thrown in, or at what time.

      I also sympathize with you being way too invested. Though, I only wish my average cost was $1.44.

      Correct me if I'm wrong, but I didn't take your BK comment as a short term concern. Some other posters seem fearful that could happen soon, but NAP has a lot they can still do to avoid such a situation for at least a year or two or three.

      The big issue I see is that they will not be able to just halt the expansion while waiting for funds, and still manage to generate enough cash to cover the bills. Ore from the expansion is a good part of the bill covering revenue. So, funding must happen, in Q2, but going for full cash needed via equity at this point would be ugly to PPS. Still, I think it may be possible that NAP has something up their sleeves.

      I agree that we probably will not get to $1.30 or above in the near term without either a huge blowup in SA, which still could happen, or a merger, a buyout, or a kind funding proposition (e.g. from KFO) .

    • ivlarry,

      I have now rebuilt my PAL holding from having buying from 1.18 to 1.07+ and will be willing to add at 1.05 or lower unless some more bad news? and we had a lot lately and surpasses even my worst case scenario.
      As I said before, the CC and earnings were very far from any of our projections and everything we talk about before earnings went to the trash and was irrelevant.
      Phil du toit really cover his back recently. And any good news from here will place Phil du toit as the savior.

      I would like you to explain this bankruptcy potential news you are talking about?

      Yes, PAL needs a sizable financing to complete the transition but beside this important capex it is not cash they really need to survive or die?
      If things come to worse the expansion will take longer and the mining will cost more but the company is not going to financially collapse in my opinion. When you are talking about bankruptcy you are talking about a company that has not the sufficient cash to pay the bills but PAL is, plus or minus...
      Of course, pushing the expansion down the road is not an ideal situation but it will be eventually what PAL needs to do to survive and expands at much slower pace.
      I would like to know your reasoning regarding this potential bankruptcy talk and why?

      I think it is obvious that PAL will need some financing to stay on schedule and successfully become a real mine, management said it is searching now for a suitable financing during the Q2...Perhaps PAL will need some sort of partnership? or even to find a suitable buyer who will be financially solid enough to realize the transition on schedule.
      But it is different to say that PAL needs the cash to survive another day. We will see...It is very late here talk to you tomorrow perhaps.

      Thank you for your comment....

      • 2 Replies to bigblue904034
      • FWIW, I have not held a grudge for some time now, and have not given a thumbs down to your posts in months, with the exception posts referencing me or Bell as idiots.

        If you wish to clear the air, you can send me a note off-line at my screen-name at Yahoo (I'm not interested in public hashing). If not, that cool, too. Just thought you might want to know.

      • I am just concerned about their debt coming due in 2014 and 2017, and their ability to pay it or roll it into a new debt instrument. That is my concern with the bankruptcy scenerio, as well as what some other posters brought up on the topic. I am too heavily invested right now at a loss in PAL, and I got blindsided by Monday's announcement. My average is about 1.44. At this point I am not willing to put any more money in PAL. I am also betting heavily on a gold miner rebound. Glad to see you are posting your thoughts again.

        Sentiment: Hold

 
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