The consensus of the 4 analysts (See YH analysts estimates) is -.02. I think we all agree that it will be nowhere near that (-.02 would be better than Q1) which we know is impossible. IMO if we surveyed this board we would get a range of -.06 to .-10 maybe average -.08. No one one this board would be surprised with that. Unfortuneately those who do not follow PAL will only see a bad miss. So if the analysts do not reduce their estimates to more reflect reality we will take a knee-jerk reaction hit. -.08 will be bad enough but will seem worse when compared to an unrealistic -.02 Maybe they just don't care about PAL anymore and have not bothered to re-evaluate.
The earnings is not an issue for PAL at this time...and it is not a bunch of newbies traders that will change anything or some clowns like Joecheng. Estimate never been really accurate or in time.
Why do you think PAL traded at 0.91 recently just after the first tranche of financing at 1.155? Do you think the second tranche will be different in July?
Most analysts who follow PAL know that the earnings per share have been revised negatively when Phil du Toit reduced production for 2013 and increase cash cost.
What we can say, with some degree of certainty, is that PAL may re-test 50 MA (1.10-1.20) and more if Palladium is getting the boost to 700-720 on its way to 800+ around Q4 2013 (659 yesterday from 630)?
Then earnings will come and as usual (just look at the last several earnings) the pps will go down again and re-test its lows in the 0.90's for a while again?
The second issue is not as certain as before, because Phase I is about to show some milestone and a proximity of the production from the shaft and a slow reducing of the cash cost and increase production.
The real money behind this PAL trading is difficult to predict and sometimes surprises me.
Phil du Toit and Languille have shown so far some honesty and have followed the "best path" even if we cannot see it now.
1 - Gold adventure is sold out and PAL got back 20M...it could have been much worse!
2- Financing for Phase I, AS A WHOLE, has been concluded and despite the high % I wonder if they could have done it with what happened since then? 130M dollars.
3 - Phil du Toit revised production and cash cost for 2013 and did a thorough evaluation of the LDI with some new strategies (bulk mining and delay of the Phase II) that make sense although we still need some clarification
4 - The sinking of the shaft at Phase I target -825m is about to be completed in about a week or two?
Bought from 1.15 to as low as 0.91+ with an average under 1. Ready for some dividend AGAIN. Hope for the best.
I think you are way overly optimistic. My concern is - the management decided to replace the 6% debt that was maturing next year with 15%. That means they think have they not done it, they wouldn't be able to refi that debt next year. So I won't expect anything especially exciting until next year.
(this is not to say that the stock cannot jump back to $1.40 or even $2 - it could, but this would be due to something like a steep rise in palladium prices, closure of South African or Russian mines, etc., not to anything NAP-specific)
I don't think any rational investor will buy or sell the stock based on the EPS figure for this quarter since (i) it is backward looking and (ii) cash flows are more important for a company trying to build a mine. The most important thing is the cost per ounce estimate for after Phase I is complete. The street is modelling just over $300/oz. If PAL's guidance is materially above that then, then the stock will tank. If it's below, the stock will pop.
Any rational, aware intelligent investor will as you say ignore the Q2 earnings. I'm more concerned about the ignorant who will shout the miss from the castle walls and will have a temporary effect. All the various newswires will just report the miss, not the underlying (good) prospects.
We all know that the key quarters will be Q4 which will measure how quickly they have switched over to shaft and Q1/14 which will give us a view into long term oz and costs. IMO q4 will be a mix of old and new and may not be fully indicative of long term prospects. Just hope they can avoid any financial issues for the next 9 months.