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Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. Message Board

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  • netstockman netstockman Dec 9, 1997 7:05 PM Flag

    future stock price

    I'm becoming more knowledgable about REITs, but it appears the key element with FFO is growth. What has the past 2 or 3 years been like?, What is expected for the next couple of years? A 10 to 15% per annum increase in FFO, or more, is desirable. Traditionally,
    real estate growth is lucky to be about 5 to 7%. Many metro areas have had "rent spikes" of over 15%, but this doesn't last for more than a couple years, usually. So, the company acquisitions or development must fuel this strong growth in REITs. The later can be full of risk, the former has been the key to success for most high flying REITs, who claim better efficiencies through size. This is true, to a point. Most REITs now trade at 20 to 40% premium above their real estate values. Forget book
    value, it doesn't reflect the value of the assets. Many analysts contend this premium is justified because of the expertise of management who will continually be able to grow their company at strong Growth rates of FFO. Personally, I still believe that the underlying value of REITs have significance. Therefore, I'd try to find REITs with properties in tight markets that experience strong rental growth rates, successfull non-dilutive acquistions, strong growth rates, and a reasonable premium over
    asset value. This ain't easy to find, but if anyone reading this knows such REITs, or has some other opinions, please respond.


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