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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • hangthemhigh51 hangthemhigh51 Sep 24, 2009 2:16 AM Flag

    A WARNING FROM STX, NOT AN UPDATE

    Let's parse their words:

    "Overall industry demand for hard disk drives continues to strengthen. As a result, the total available market (TAM) for the September quarter is anticipated to be greater than the 135-140 million units originally expected while the TAM for the December quarter is now projected to be 145-155 million units."

    Total Available market?? it's not sale, it's a capacity to produce, otherwise, the word "sales" would be used.

    As the price per drive is around $17, an extra 10 million drives is only $17 million, hardly worthy of a press release.

    "For its first fiscal quarter, Seagate now expects revenue to be at or slightly above the high end of its original guidance of $2.4-$2.6 billion. In the event OEM demand is stronger than we anticipate during the last two weeks of the quarter, as occurred last quarter, revenue for the first fiscal quarter could be greater than our revised guidance. As a result of our rapid transition to market leading notebook and desktop products, as well as improving factory efficiencies and utilization, gross margin as a percent of revenue is now expected to be approximately 23-24%."

    In the event the demand is stronger ( that is the key misleading word) revenue could be greater.LOL

    Again, this QTR they will try to show profit by cutting R&D and other expenses while their top line still at very low level, a far cry from the $3 Billion in previous QTRs.

    " The demand and pricing environment during the remaining weeks of the quarter will be key factors in determining the operating results for the first fiscal quarter of 2010."

    Here is the catch phrase, read it and weep.( key factor in determining the operating results) LOL

    For an extra $17 million in revenues, they have this party with false and misleading information making people believe it's a big deal.

    From the looks of things, this stock is going down to $12 in the next couple of weeks.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "STX grossly over-priced at $16 in this tough market space....going down to $11 before it ever sees $16 again"

      Over priced, LOL!

      While we could see a short term correction, where do you get that STX is currently over priced at $14.90?

      Please provide any historical data or your basis for that claim?

      FYI, historically STX PE range is 11 to 13 and Price/sales ratio is 0.5 to 1.5.

      FYI-At $14.90, STX is trading at a PE of 8.1 and a Price/sales ratio of 0.75 based on the current consensus estimates which are likely to go up after the earnings call in 3 weeks time. During the period FY05 to FY07, STX averaged $1.53 in EPS and stock generally traded between $18 and $28 for the period 2005 and 2007, see chart:

      http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=7&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&CP=1&C5=1&C5D=1&C6=2005&C7=12&C7D=31&C8=2007&C9=-1&CF=0&D7=&D6=&symbol=STX&nocookie=1&SZ=0

      Is this the new math you are using, or are you a hedge fund short or PM who missed the boat on the run up from $3 to $16????

      BTW-Did you see the INTC CEO on CNBC on FRiday talking about the revival of the PC market and then the vultures rushed in to gobble up 5.6 million STX shares during the last 90 minutes of trading?

      Anyway, keep on bashing cause I got some extra cash to put to work!

    • New to this board, but i see a lot of smart aleck talk from you but HANG is making the money...

      STX grossly over-priced at $16 in this tough market space....going down to $11 before it ever sees $16 again.

    • Missed one

      HB/LED-hard bias/leads, i.e-head layers

      JIT could also be jitter

    • Good job!-89%

      GB-gigabyte-surprised you missed that one!

      S*-Coercive squareness from media hysteresis loop.

      Now the more important question, should we be long or short STX?

    • 1. Hc - coercivity
      2. KOMG - komag
      3. OVWRT - overwrite
      4. 747 - bathtub curve
      5. CPP - current perpendicular to plane
      6. JIT - just in time?
      7. PRML - partial response maximum likelihood - encoding method
      8. BER - bit error rate
      9. RDRT - readrite
      10. HB/LED
      11. RU - ruthenium
      12. COCRPTTA - cobalt chrome platinum tantalum CoCrPtTa
      13. ASYM - asymmetry
      14. S* - ???
      15. GB - ???
      16. NIFE - nickel iron
      17. SNR - signal to noise ratio
      18. BrT - remanance * thickness

    • I never said I am a big time traders, but I am big enough and I trade a lot. I do not wait for the buck, I chase it regardless how.

      You are too immature to understand how day traders work.

      I will leave it to your love fest and your 100 shares waiting for pennies to trickle while I get busy trading and shorting stocks.

      I do not play guessing games with codes, you must be fairly young to play these games.

      And if you're not happy , you can suckkkkk my kock

    • "You are furious at anyone who short this stock"

      Not really, we find it funny that a "big time trader" like you missed over a 400% gain in just 6 months time and only now is chasing, and braging about, chump change short day trades.

      Most investment professionals, a number of whom read and sometimes post on this board, have enough brains to know the big bucks are always made by going with the flow and not fighting the tape unless there is a very good reason do to so!

      Do you have one?

    • Pathetic.

      You are furious at anyone who short this stock, as a matter of facts a lot of the posters on many boards are like you, that is very childish and quite stupid.

      When I sell 1000, 2000, 5000 hard drives, do I care who these people are?

      Pathetic, and more Pathetic.

      You're a Poutsa glifti

    • "I am not an engineer in hard drives, I only trade them wholesale.

      But these are terms used in the composition of the hard drives, either in the parts or the firmware commands"

      LOL, btw wrong on most counts!

      A little advice here, if you want to be credible as a new poster you shouldn't come on and say you know more than others on this board about this space,

      BTW, you also completely wiffed on the names

      1. TC = Tu Chen founder and ex CEO of Komag

      2. AS = Al Shugart founder, ex CEO of STX

      3. MM =Matt Massengill, ex CEO of WDC, or drive Analyst Mark Moskowitz at JP Morgan.

      4. MK = Mark Kryder, ex CTO of STX and he lead magnetic recording program at CMU

      5. Stephen Luczo = Past & Current CEO of STX

      6. Finis Conner = Former CEO and founder of Connor Peripherals & ex SEG exec.

      7. Neal Bertram (?) = Professor specializing in micro magnetic modeling at UCSD.

      8. JC = John Coyne current CEO of WDC.

      So you are just a trader who looks at charts and listens to "hot tips" all day and you know nothing about the key people or technology of the drive business.

      BTW, if you were such a great trader, why didn't you go long on STX when it ran from $3 to $16?

      IMHO by being only short, you are just chasing chump change here and bragging about it!

      but.....

      If you did go long, then why did you wait to tell us just only about your shorts?

      We have the distinct impression you are just pulling a cheap trader/hedge fund trick to create fear so others will sell their shares cheap to you or your firm.

      FYI, We have seen this ruse many times before!

      That is all for now!

    • By the way, I short many stocks not only STX, I also buy stocks when the price is right.

      In this market you have to be like a hand saw you get a piece on the way up and a piece on the way down.

      Chase the buck wherever it is.

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