That would only be an 18% premium to the close. Plus if the $7 bil number was STX's offer and they failed to meet financial projections, then it may be lower. Regardless, STX should accept a price no lower than $15. If it is an all cash deal, the stock should trade at $14.75 AFTER the BOD accepts the buy-out. Iff.....if......if.......GLTA.
"Regardless, STX should accept a price no lower than $15."
Really?? Considering the stock was trading over $18 as recently as June and 5 year EPS growth is projected at 10.5%, I would expect to see an offer of at LEAST $18 before shareholders would even consider tendering.
I'll be out long calls tomorrow regardless, but if you follow the earlier $7 bil PE bid, the price is $15. And this was contingent upon meeting certain financial projections. I do find the timing suspect considering: a) tomorrow's options expiration (TPG/STX helping out some of their friends?) b) next Wednesday earnings......miss?
Considering our exchange earlier today, in pretty short order once the Board approves a deal, "shareholders" will largely be arbitrageurs who bought at .85 of a deal price with a view to selling at the deal price quickly. Thus it is irrelevant what shareholders think and only relevant what the Board thinks.
In that regard, I agree that they should hold out for something like $18 or more for all the reasons you have articulated but they are, after all, Luczo's cronies without any real independent leadership and they are advised by professionals closely aligned to Luczo who will sprinkle all the necessary holy water on a decision to prepare for the inevitable lawsuits. While the market is apparently telling us the number is higher than $15, I don't think that you should put much stock in the spine of the Board.
If they really want to persuade us they have gotten the best possible deal, they should require that Luczo sell all his equity and not participate in the privatized entity, but that will never happen.
As i've said before, better than where we were but not as good as it should be if the Company was really run for the public shareholders.
Formal action will have to be taken before the earnings call on Wednesday so they can start making their case for the discounted price that they have agreed to.