all this fancy analysis based on theories that may or may not be true, or if not that, just hype. Don't any of you ever walk into the local computer superstore and see what's on the shelves and follow the prices? Nobody ever has anything to say about that. I can't be the only one who does a little research by walking around. You know..take your smart phone...scan the barcode, and do a pricecheck of all the retailers and see what's trending with current prices for myself...make a note of how much shelf space they are getting...stuff like that that actually means something out there in the world of retail.....see what drives are in what new computers...I guess research by wandering around and looking is old fashioned...
you expect to know how stx stock will do by looking in the stores????
The movers and shakers that run this stock probably don't even know
what a HDD is. They just like to buy low and sell high and they play
this game a lot with stx. Pay attention and you might get some of
their play. by early june we will see over 30 again
"I don't want to accept fear. I just want to get as close to the truth as possible."
Everything you have been posting - except for the insider selling points - is related to rumor and fear.
"I have been trying to reconcile why insiders are selling if they are bullish for the future , as I believe you are."
I don't like it - it has been the only fact that bears & shorts can come up with. But I know this (unfortunately): they can sell all their stock now because they will simply get more at below market prices in the near future. They are just daytrading (well, maybe quartertrading).
"One thing I have come up ...Won't buyers hold back because upgrading to windows 8 afterwards without a non touch screen device won't make as much sense. So in this scenario, might we not see a sharper pullback in convential pc's in coming months, and a hit to the stock as a result?"
Whether because of Win 8 or not, isn't this exactly what has been happening for the last year? And it will go on for at least another 4 months. Businesses are not waiting for Win 8 - consumers may be. And the consumer side of the PC business - which BTW is less than 50% of HDD sales - has sucked for awhile.
Thanks for this real world view. Miller knew that this summer would provide ample opportunity for FUD beyond normal summers and it won't be until after the June quarter results and September quarter outlooks are issued in late July that the din of FUD will start to die down.
More patience is required but the payoff will be worth it.
I guess you could call it a hobby, and maybe it's irrelevant, but it's resulted in more than one comma in my net worth figure so I think I will stick with it. it's certaintly more useful than all the bunk I find on yahoo message boards....now THAT I would call a hobby...I guess since I don't watch TV, reading a bunch of silliness is entertaining to me. And there is the occasional gem. You just have to pick thru a lot of turds to find one.
What? Do you mean to actually let reality factor into the analysis?
You don't have to walk around very far to find the reality that some of us have been pointing out for months.
The reality that prices are STILL up to 100% higher than where they were 8 months ago?
The reality that even if prices drop at the retail/distribution level another 25%, it will still support gross margins above 30%? (OMG! Prices dropped 3% this quarter - the sky is falling!!!)
The reality that inventory levels are still a fraction of where they normally are? (Even Katy acknowledged that)
The reality that even though PC growth is minimal (3%), total HDD production capacity is STILL less than where it was 8 months ago?
The reality that the total worldwide storage capacity growth rate is outstripping areal density growth rate by a factor of 2? (If you don't know what that means or don't know the consequences, ask).
We can't let reality enter into the discussion around here.
Reality would result in conclusions completely out of sync with stock price performance.
We MUST have rumor and fear! We MUST, we MUST!!!!
Let me simplify this further:
The reality offered by Wall Street for the HDD industry cannot be reconciled against the current marketplace reality of the HDD industry using facts.
The only way the two can be reconciled is through the acceptance of rumor and fear.
I'm not saying that the fears do not have a basis in history - they do. But the facts behind the current state of the HDD industry do not support those fears. Therefore, you must simply accept those fears in order to reconcile the current stock price performance. I think in other discussions, this borders on religion. Just believe what they are telling you.