Seagate Technology PLC Message Board

you expect to know how stx stock will do by looking in the stores????
The movers and shakers that run this stock probably don't even know
what a HDD is. They just like to buy low and sell high and they play
this game a lot with stx. Pay attention and you might get some of
their play. by early june we will see over 30 again

All hat, no cattle.

Another thing Go,
You characterize most of my post as fear posting.
Isn't that what you are doing when you post about short cartels etc.
You don't have ANY proof of the assertions of the short cartel. It is not a fact, but you feel you have reason to believe it. Just grant me the same , I believe the things I post, just as you believe the things you post.
And in the end , the shareprice action is the ultimate measure of what the truth is. I just want to get as close to the truth of that part as I can.
Fair enough?

Go,
If insiders are trading as you suggest, then it certainly justifies the view that the public should consider doing the same.
I admit and it is consistent with my posts that I prefer to follow their lead (actions) rather than their words or the words of shorts. So , at least can you accept that is who I am ,a nonbiased investor/trader who actually prefers to trade from the long side, but has found it more profitable and sleepable at night to hedge by trading and selling calls, and stop this accusation of being a fear monergerer or a shill or part of a short cartel etc.
Fair enough?
You wrote: " Whether because of Win 8 or not, isn't this exactly what has been happening for the last year? And it will go on for at least another 4 months. Businesses are not waiting for Win 8 - consumers may be. And the consumer side of the PC business - which BTW is less than 50% of HDD sales - has sucked for awhile."
Why do you say that the phenomenon of waiting won't apply to businesses , especially as we get closer. That would make your quoting of the 50 percent figure not representative. And we still don't know what the eventual level of business switching to non conventional pc's will be in the future.

"I don't want to accept fear. I just want to get as close to the truth as possible."

Everything you have been posting - except for the insider selling points - is related to rumor and fear.


"I have been trying to reconcile why insiders are selling if they are bullish for the future , as I believe you are."

I don't like it - it has been the only fact that bears & shorts can come up with. But I know this (unfortunately): they can sell all their stock now because they will simply get more at below market prices in the near future. They are just daytrading (well, maybe quartertrading).


"One thing I have come up ...Won't buyers hold back because upgrading to windows 8 afterwards without a non touch screen device won't make as much sense. So in this scenario, might we not see a sharper pullback in convential pc's in coming months, and a hit to the stock as a result?"

Whether because of Win 8 or not, isn't this exactly what has been happening for the last year? And it will go on for at least another 4 months. Businesses are not waiting for Win 8 - consumers may be. And the consumer side of the PC business - which BTW is less than 50% of HDD sales - has sucked for awhile.

I don't want to accept fear. I just want to get as close to the truth as possible.

Gatrz,

Thanks for this real world view. Miller knew that this summer would provide ample opportunity for FUD beyond normal summers and it won't be until after the June quarter results and September quarter outlooks are issued in late July that the din of FUD will start to die down.

More patience is required but the payoff will be worth it.

That would be considered a hobby! The price of STX stock has nothing to do with the price of retail drives or individual research!

Cheers!

What? Do you mean to actually let reality factor into the analysis?

You don't have to walk around very far to find the reality that some of us have been pointing out for months.

The reality that prices are STILL up to 100% higher than where they were 8 months ago?
http://camelegg.com/product/N82E16822148767?locale=US
http://camelegg.com/product/N82E16822136769?locale=US
http://camelegg.com/product/N82E16822136767?locale=US
http://camelegg.com/product/N82E16822148697?locale=US

The reality that even if prices drop at the retail/distribution level another 25%, it will still support gross margins above 30%? (OMG! Prices dropped 3% this quarter - the sky is falling!!!)

The reality that inventory levels are still a fraction of where they normally are? (Even Katy acknowledged that)

The reality that even though PC growth is minimal (3%), total HDD production capacity is STILL less than where it was 8 months ago?

The reality that the total worldwide storage capacity growth rate is outstripping areal density growth rate by a factor of 2? (If you don't know what that means or don't know the consequences, ask).

Reality?

We can't let reality enter into the discussion around here.
Reality would result in conclusions completely out of sync with stock price performance.

We MUST have rumor and fear! We MUST, we MUST!!!!