all this fancy analysis based on theories that may or may not be true, or if not that, just hype. Don't any of you ever walk into the local computer superstore and see what's on the shelves and follow the prices? Nobody ever has anything to say about that. I can't be the only one who does a little research by walking around. You know..take your smart phone...scan the barcode, and do a pricecheck of all the retailers and see what's trending with current prices for myself...make a note of how much shelf space they are getting...stuff like that that actually means something out there in the world of retail.....see what drives are in what new computers...I guess research by wandering around and looking is old fashioned...
you expect to know how stx stock will do by looking in the stores????
The movers and shakers that run this stock probably don't even know
what a HDD is. They just like to buy low and sell high and they play
this game a lot with stx. Pay attention and you might get some of
their play. by early june we will see over 30 again
Another thing Go,
You characterize most of my post as fear posting.
Isn't that what you are doing when you post about short cartels etc.
You don't have ANY proof of the assertions of the short cartel. It is not a fact, but you feel you have reason to believe it. Just grant me the same , I believe the things I post, just as you believe the things you post.
And in the end , the shareprice action is the ultimate measure of what the truth is. I just want to get as close to the truth of that part as I can.
If insiders are trading as you suggest, then it certainly justifies the view that the public should consider doing the same.
I admit and it is consistent with my posts that I prefer to follow their lead (actions) rather than their words or the words of shorts. So , at least can you accept that is who I am ,a nonbiased investor/trader who actually prefers to trade from the long side, but has found it more profitable and sleepable at night to hedge by trading and selling calls, and stop this accusation of being a fear monergerer or a shill or part of a short cartel etc.
You wrote: " Whether because of Win 8 or not, isn't this exactly what has been happening for the last year? And it will go on for at least another 4 months. Businesses are not waiting for Win 8 - consumers may be. And the consumer side of the PC business - which BTW is less than 50% of HDD sales - has sucked for awhile."
Why do you say that the phenomenon of waiting won't apply to businesses , especially as we get closer. That would make your quoting of the 50 percent figure not representative. And we still don't know what the eventual level of business switching to non conventional pc's will be in the future.
"I don't want to accept fear. I just want to get as close to the truth as possible."
Everything you have been posting - except for the insider selling points - is related to rumor and fear.
"I have been trying to reconcile why insiders are selling if they are bullish for the future , as I believe you are."
I don't like it - it has been the only fact that bears & shorts can come up with. But I know this (unfortunately): they can sell all their stock now because they will simply get more at below market prices in the near future. They are just daytrading (well, maybe quartertrading).
"One thing I have come up ...Won't buyers hold back because upgrading to windows 8 afterwards without a non touch screen device won't make as much sense. So in this scenario, might we not see a sharper pullback in convential pc's in coming months, and a hit to the stock as a result?"
Whether because of Win 8 or not, isn't this exactly what has been happening for the last year? And it will go on for at least another 4 months. Businesses are not waiting for Win 8 - consumers may be. And the consumer side of the PC business - which BTW is less than 50% of HDD sales - has sucked for awhile.
Thanks for this real world view. Miller knew that this summer would provide ample opportunity for FUD beyond normal summers and it won't be until after the June quarter results and September quarter outlooks are issued in late July that the din of FUD will start to die down.
More patience is required but the payoff will be worth it.
I guess you could call it a hobby, and maybe it's irrelevant, but it's resulted in more than one comma in my net worth figure so I think I will stick with it. it's certaintly more useful than all the bunk I find on yahoo message boards....now THAT I would call a hobby...I guess since I don't watch TV, reading a bunch of silliness is entertaining to me. And there is the occasional gem. You just have to pick thru a lot of turds to find one.
What? Do you mean to actually let reality factor into the analysis?
You don't have to walk around very far to find the reality that some of us have been pointing out for months.
The reality that prices are STILL up to 100% higher than where they were 8 months ago?
The reality that even if prices drop at the retail/distribution level another 25%, it will still support gross margins above 30%? (OMG! Prices dropped 3% this quarter - the sky is falling!!!)
The reality that inventory levels are still a fraction of where they normally are? (Even Katy acknowledged that)
The reality that even though PC growth is minimal (3%), total HDD production capacity is STILL less than where it was 8 months ago?
The reality that the total worldwide storage capacity growth rate is outstripping areal density growth rate by a factor of 2? (If you don't know what that means or don't know the consequences, ask).
We can't let reality enter into the discussion around here.
Reality would result in conclusions completely out of sync with stock price performance.
We MUST have rumor and fear! We MUST, we MUST!!!!
If Seagate owned stores like apple does and was selling retail then canvassing those stores could be significant for pricing.
But we don't know what the the mark up is.
Don't you realize that besides retail being only a very small part of the picture, it will be the last to show the movement in pricing? Ie you will see the pricing change in the channel , and the oem's before you see the retail .
Of course, on this board, such insight is verboten amongst permabulls. Just as similiar but opposite concepts are verboten amongst the permabears.
Let me simplify this further:
The reality offered by Wall Street for the HDD industry cannot be reconciled against the current marketplace reality of the HDD industry using facts.
The only way the two can be reconciled is through the acceptance of rumor and fear.
I'm not saying that the fears do not have a basis in history - they do. But the facts behind the current state of the HDD industry do not support those fears. Therefore, you must simply accept those fears in order to reconcile the current stock price performance. I think in other discussions, this borders on religion. Just believe what they are telling you.