If insiders are trading as you suggest, then it certainly justifies the view that the public should consider doing the same.
I admit and it is consistent with my posts that I prefer to follow their lead (actions) rather than their words or the words of shorts. So , at least can you accept that is who I am ,a nonbiased investor/trader who actually prefers to trade from the long side, but has found it more profitable and sleepable at night to hedge by trading and selling calls, and stop this accusation of being a fear monergerer or a shill or part of a short cartel etc.
You characterize most of my post as fear posting.
Isn't that what you are doing when you post about short cartels etc.
You don't have ANY proof of the assertions of the short cartel. It is not a fact, but you feel you have reason to believe it. Just grant me the same , I believe the things I post, just as you believe the things you post.
And in the end , the shareprice action is the ultimate measure of what the truth is. I just want to get as close to the truth of that part as I can.
You wrote: " Whether because of Win 8 or not, isn't this exactly what has been happening for the last year? And it will go on for at least another 4 months. Businesses are not waiting for Win 8 - consumers may be. And the consumer side of the PC business - which BTW is less than 50% of HDD sales - has sucked for awhile."
Why do you say that the phenomenon of waiting won't apply to businesses , especially as we get closer. That would make your quoting of the 50 percent figure not representative. And we still don't know what the eventual level of business switching to non conventional pc's will be in the future.
Did you get your feelings hurt?
Apologize? Hmmmmmm .... let me think about this. I wasn't talking to the board, I was talking to you. So what if somebody else called the trading cartel the short cartel before you. You still referred to them as the short cartel the day before it was revealed they indeed placed that bet. I didn't call them that - you did. So if you got your nose tweaked - too bad. I'm sure the rest of the board will cheer if it shuts up your tired monologue.
I stand by my OPINION (see, that's my opinion - I don't present it as fact) that the massive short bet made by the trading cartel had a much more significant impact on the subsequent stock price than any of the insider sales during the period. There are other factors that are playing into all this (macro fears, tech avoidance, institutional stupidity), but the short selling impact far outweighs those insider sales.
At least I don't parade around here with a duplicitive nature.
"I'm long ... " but "the fundamentals for STX had deteriorated SIGNIFICANTLY"
That's your quote and you still have offered zero evidence that that is the fact. And neither have any of the so-called ANALysts. You ply your trade on rumor and fear.
"I would love to use Gogatrz as a source of info"
NO! Do not pass GO! Do not collect your $200. And do not use me as any source of info for anything you think, say or do. In fact, put me on IGNORE.
“You don't have ANY proof of the assertions of the short cartel.”
Kind of coincidental that nobody around here ever called them a “short cartel” – except you. A mere day before the statistics revealed that, indeed, it was shorting by the cartel that has been at work lately! Amazing coincidence. Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…….
But some of us around here knew that the trading cartel was hard at work, and that the next path of least resistance was down. But nobody ever called them the “short cartel.” They will work in both directions. And they like to control the action. As I said – empirical evidence through observation.
“More and more insider blocks are being reported ….They knew that the fundamentals for STX had deteriorated SIGNIFICANTLY and the outlook is very very mirky.”
Let’s see: during the first 2 weeks of May (5/1 through 5/15), insiders sold 931,395 shares. During that same period, the “short cartel” (as you call them), shorted 6,633,852 shares. Now, which set of selling do you really think is more meaningful in the near-term?
Here’s the facts that we know: fundamentally – NOTHING has changed. The HDD market is playing out exactly as management of both STX & WDC has predicted.
The stock action since 5/16/12 – the day after the current short statistics were compiled – says nothing about the outlook for the HDD market, and there is no relation between STX insiders selling being a predicator of untold future events.
The stock action since 5/16 is the result of MASSIVE shorting by the trading cartel on a scale that has never been seen in the HDD sector!!!
So don’t pretend to “be a friend” of the longs. I’ll rely upon the observable facts to decide which side of the ledger you speak from.
Fair enough and thank you for the measured reply.
It does seem to me though, that if you do it (i.e. sell or try to lock in the high prices by selling covered calls which executives can't do), it is smart and shrewd (however you want to style it) investing acumen, but if they do it, it is somehow most probably a harbinger of bad times.
Seems like what is sauce for the goose is not sauce for the gander, but whatever floats your boat. Its like horoscopes: you can read into whatever you want to believe.
Have a nice Memorial Day holiday.
Thanks finally for the reply.
All I was asking for an acknowledgment on is that the insiders could be largely motivated by the very same thing that motivated you and others (like Mr. Miller from Noble) to say that this would be a good time to take some profits given that the stock has had a great run and the summer is the prime seasonal time to sell the drive stocks.
They may even feel that incentive more keenly because under typical public company insider trading rules they are prevented from selling calls or trading during significant portions of each quarter (other than trades pursuant to 10b-5 plans). So they may be exhibiting the perfectly rational behavior that you are urging on the purportedly dunderhead bulls who cannot wake up and smell the coffee grinds!
That's all I'm saying and it is a plausible alternative explanation so, unless you "know" otherwise, which it sounds like you don't, you should simply acknowledge that this may be the explanation for this activity.
In fact, the fact that Massaroni, the general counsel, is selling outside a 10b-5 plan to me reinforces this conclusion because I would think that for professional reputational reasons he would be most careful to not sell in front of strongly negative news.
As with everything else, time will tell.
"If insiders are trading as you suggest, then it certainly justifies the view that the public should consider doing the same."
Yahoo does not allow the use of emoticons. My comment about them daytrading, blah blah blah, was sarcasm. They get their shares cheap or free, and more of them every month or quarter, so what do they care about selling at 17, 26 or 32. They'll just get more soon enough.
My comments about the trading cartels (not just short cartels - they work both sides) is based upon way too many years of empirical observations combined with some other knowledge. The HDD stocks are usually much more controlled than they have been the last 4 months. Extraneous events lead to that. But I distinctly see the hand of the cartel trying to re-exert control. Feel free to judge it superstition if you want.
Win 8 for consumers and not businesses.
The software stack used by most businesses is very different from that used by most consumers. Businesses tend to move much slower. Most businesses completely avoided Vista and stuck with XP. Then the recession delayed most of the conversions to 7. However, the aging XP platform is rapidly running out of gas (if not swollen capacitors) and must be upgraded. With more than a trivial amount of effort having been put into upgrading the software to be Win 7 compatible, they are not waiting for 8. And will not go to 8 if 7 works fine.
Consumers though will not have a choice. OEMs will force 8 on them. Just look at the emphasis Win 8 has towards consumer interests. Win 8 will be a consumer event.
the aging XP platform is rapidly running out of gas (if not swollen capacitors) and must be upgraded. With more than a trivial amount of effort having been put into upgrading the software to be Win 7 compatible"
I like the swollen cap reference..
Also business's were waiting for industry specific software to transform to true 64 bit versions..
Lots of my commercial customers are running servers to failure due to lousy economy mainly..