In lieu of recent events the last two points seem highly pertinent.
"As such, we believe there are several factors that argue for Seagate investors to take some profits:
Stock is up 240% since the Fall
Seasonally, tech stocks historically weaken during the summer months; aside from the recession year of 2009 Seagate's share price has dropped in six of the last seven years between May 1st and September 1st
Concerns about investor over reaction to market share and price perturbations as the drive industry comes back into equilibrium by the Fall
Visibility issues over TAM growth
We believe once the drive industry returns to equilibrium in the Fall that investor concerns over share and price perturbations will have subsided and this coupled with improved investor visibility over TAM growth will reinvigorate investors about the drive space affording more historical multiples"
Yep down 30% on hand waving by Barclays and the Morgan Stanley report that while inventories were up they are 30% lower than in January and drive prices fell 3% during the first six weeks of the March.
FYI, the rate of decline during the fist half of this quarter was unchanged since the end of 2011.
Q: So why did STX double from the end of December through early May, if the 3% decline is now so horrific?
A; MAXIMUM CONTRIVED VOLATILITY AS THE CHART MONKIES AGAIN STEAL VALUE FROM SHAREHOLDERS AS THE BUY SIDE WEENIES WET THEIR PANTIES!