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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • hddriven hddriven Jun 6, 2012 8:49 AM Flag

    WW4231

    I read your explanation about the analysts not cutting fiscal 2013 estimates yet.
    I am in the industry and fully expect that to happen, never believed they should have been that high in the first place.
    What do you think about the june 2012 quarter estimates? Will STX meet those?
    I think they have a good chance to do so.

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    • Very funny.

      We have sadly become a nation of short attention span, I want here yesterday investors with a long term investment horizon of 4 hours!

    • When is the upswing to 34 going to start today? What time?

    • another typical post from the village idiot pipster.

      I should say also the village liar,
      also the village distortion chief
      also the village hypocrite making false accusations when he is the one perpetrating the thing he accuses others of!
      Cheers oh might village idiot pipster!

    • One should not use nuances in making investment decisions, IMO.

    • Possibly, but even in the last 2 quarters, the upswing didn't start right out of the gate the day after earnings.

      I fully expect that the stock will build into the release over the next 6 weeks (subject to any macro developments in Europe or elsewhere) and that there will be selling at the beginning of the day after no matter what the results are and what is said in the call.

      After that initial selling, the real trend will emerge over the next few days.

      I know that you expect a negative outlook based on insider selling and all the negative FUD out there and you may be right, but you are talking about the seasonally strong September and December quarters (which could be made stronger by the new Microsoft and Intel releases) and Yahoo estimates currently show very little or no uptick from the June quarter so theoretically simply calling for a flat quarter to quarter performance should be considered positive.

      However, nothing about the HDD stocks' trading behavior conforms to "should" so I still expect selling followed ultimately by further gradual appreciation.

      The wild card in all of this for me is whether they have been aggressive in accelerating their buyback over the past week of trading nonsense. If they have, that will be a discreet piece of news coming out with the release that could ignite some buying to counteract the normal selling behavior.

    • ww the reason the stock takes off after most earnings is not only from earnings it is what they doing with free cash. are you so stupid to believe only PE dictates share price???

      case in point, they can earn $0.53 in a earnings but if they say we returning $0.50 to the shareholders this quarter, and we have removed 40 million shares, you don't think that would make more of a move then beating by $5 and doing nothing with the money???

      you are clueless dude...

    • Hddriven,
      I too think they will meet estimates for the June quarter. I recall having told Chiduravinci that.
      But recall that the last two quarters they far exceeded estimates, and in fact they exceeded whisper numbers. And immediately in the after hours of those releases the stock climbed a relatively small amount , even on those very big beats, but it was not until the next day and the conference call where forward guidance was given , that the stock really took off.
      I think they will do everything they can to meet estimates, but the sharp pullback in the stock and the other obvious signs of losing luster in the fundamental picture will make the forward picture more questionable. So it will be a difficult picture for traders if STX follows their pattern of releasing results after the close without including forward guidance in that first press release and then giving that forward guidance the next day in the earnings conference call. Ie , the stock trades well in after hours at relief that estimates are met, and then could trade down if guidance is not as rosy the next day. And of course, where it starts from is the other part of the mix.

      • 1 Reply to ww4231
      • ww,

        I'm surprised that you seem to have the normal earnings release process confused. The actual release does not come out until after the market closes and the outlook for the coming quarter is given in an earnings conference call just an hour later on the same day, not the next day as you have suggested.

        So, if there is any space between news that it met the estimates and news that the outlook is cloudy, it is during around 60 minutes of after market trading. Typically, there is even less of that activity on earnings release day than there usually is as a result of this regular schedule.

    • I don't think he will answer your question.
      . He made some good calls , but he is a pompous axx.
      ww go to he double toothpicks!!

    • What is your role in the Industry?

      I don't understand what you are saying... You state that you don't think the estimates should be "that high in the first place" and then two lines later you state that you think they have a good chance to meet estimates. Please clarify I must be missing something

      TIA

    • No followers so I have to ask myself stupid questions by using an alias... My douchebaggery knows no limits...

      MY SUPERIOR INTELLECT, blah, blah, DISCIPLINED, blah, blah, blah, IGNORANT, blah, LIAR, blah, blah, blah, DISHONEST, blah, HYPOCRITE ,blah, blah MY FOLLOWERS blah...

 
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