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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • blue_h0rseshoe blue_h0rseshoe Aug 11, 2012 12:14 PM Flag

    Is it time to take some money off of the table?

    I bought at $14 and change and never sold a share. It's been a hell of a run. How much higher can it go before there is a correction? Opinions anyone?

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    • well stx wants to remove 40% of the float, looks like they being very aggressive with it. that is all i will say...

    • Doesn't look like STX is letting up. Price set a new historical high during the day and at close. Shorts and profit takers had little effect.

    • if you want to take cash off the table sell higher priced options. might as well get some premium for them. if they not taken away oh well think of it as second dividend.

    • NO...it is so cheap peg for 5 years is only .16. 1 is considered to be great.

      3.9 % yield too.

    • I would cash out my original investment would be that I have something as good or better to invest "

      I took some trading shares off the table in May, and was able to buy them back in june for almostthe same price.

      I took those shares off 2 weeks ago, and the stock has gone up over 10% since..

      The history of this stock and sector, almost forces me to take some profit, things have changed, and maybe we wont see the big volatile sell offs and short attacks... not so sure about that.

      I do know that my IRA shares are avg 13 bucks, so I will collect divi on those indefinitly.

      I agree with the idea of buying in stages and selling in stages.. I am tempted to take some more shares off the table at todays level, but I will wait for the volume to dry up, and the bogus FUD reports to start circulating.

    • I understand what you are saying. I just want ALL my investment money working for me, the original plus any gains. The only reason I would cash out my original investment would be that I have something as good or better to invest it in or I needed the money to pay some unexpected bill, etc. If I stumble onto a better investment, then I would probably cash it all in depending on my portfolio diversification.

      There is no psychological well-being problem if one's investments are not more than one can afford to lose. When I was your age, I took on a lot more risk than I now do at 74. You make a wrong move and you have lots of years to recover. The markets today make that approach much more difficult than it used to be.

    • OK, I admit the "house" analogy has derailed the idea of my post.

      The original post was asking whether to sell or not.

      Cashing out the original investment, while letting the remainder of the investment ride would be beneficial for those SWAN investors. It provides the psychology that a loss on the initial investment is no longer possible. At worst, the investor can take a 0% gain on the initial investment.

      Notice the intent was to cash out the initial investment, NOT the gains on investment which I believe is being misconstrued as the "houses" money.

      Quickdrawhawk, it is important to keep in mind that each person has different investment objectives and different risk tolerances. For the risk adverse in today's economic climate, I would advise cashing out the initial investment for the benefit in psychological well-being.

    • If you bought at about $14, you have already doubled your initial investment.

      Personally, most here consider the yield as being stable enough to maintain or increase next year. There has been a lot of news lately that has been positive for the stock.

      However, that said, if you have other investment ideas, why not cash out half of your investment and let the rest ride. You would be playing with the houses money and still collecting a nice divi.

    • There are so many positives for this stock, it seems a bit early to sell. Besides what is mentioned above, the investor/analyst day this September could be a positive catalyst. The techicals are looking great too. And, with Jackson Hole Fed meeting, ECB meeting in Sept, and Chinese stimulus coming, the macro environment is looking good for the next few weeks. Of course, the macro could change at a whim if Europe problems surface again. Also, Sept/Oct are seasonally weak for the market so that's a slight negative as we move into the Fall.

      That said, there is nothing wrong with taking profits. I like to "leg-in" (don't buy everything at once) on the way into a position and leg-out when I want to get out. Right now, STX is the second largest position in my portfolio even after selling all my call options last week. I don't have any plans to sell any STX stock until it gets to fair value, which could easily be a double from here.

      • 1 Reply to aapl1000
      • Hey aapl100, you have a great name** Have you been investing long? I can see that you line up information and draw a well-reasoned conclusion; I like that.

        I started investing my IRA money in 2001 and have out-performed the S&P 500 every year since then. My best year produced 37%, but that was a long time back. To have more years like that one would brighten up a portfolio quick. With that said, I am nowhere near being an expert investor.

        To a large degree, the stock market is what you make of it. It should be about business, but if someone is looking for casino type fun it can surely provide that as well. Buffet’s view on this is pretty well spot on when he says “in the short run the market is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine. “ My interest in in weighing, not voting.

        I have surely had some nice performing stocks over the years, and, of course, I’ve had some dogs. But, it has been interesting sorting through them in search of winners. Which brings me to the point of why I am here. I want to be able to look inside of a company and understand more of about what drivers are engaged beyond the voting machine where the company weighs in. And I have a particular story about why I want to know more about weighing in a company.

        About the time I had my best yearly performance, the one when I gained 37%, I had landed on beauty of a momentum stock, Intuitive Surgical ISRG. I think that I got in in the low $20’s and had an amazing run up from there. Several times along the way I harvested cash, but my only real error was to not understand anything about how to weigh the company in. After making some great money, I thought, “this cannot go on forever” and sold my entire position in ISRG strictly based on that thought. ISRG continued it’s run up putting on about another 100% after I sold my position before decelerating. From a base in the low $20’s I closed the position in the low $200’s and the run went straight past $400 before ever really backing off. I made around 1000% on ISRG, but, with better knowledge, I could have picked up some of the remaining 1000% of the run up. So, here I am, wanting to know more about how to weigh in companies.

        So, what does STX weigh? All of the visual indicators are incredible; I certainly don’t think that the near term is a well-reasoned time to get out. My question at this point is, why is this stock that looks absolutely gorgeous not being snapped up? It seems to me that a big weigh in question is will hard drives have a long term position in the computer industry going forward? I think that Seagate may be a brilliantly run company and that this company may be the controlling factor as to the validity of hard drives going forward. Do you have a view on the future of hard drives?

        On the Apple web page I saw something that could be an indicator going forward. A video clip of a designer of the MacBook Pro said that one of the new features of the MacBook Pro is the use flash memory in place of a hard drive. If this will be a trend going forward hard drives may be squeezed out with time.

        For now, however, I say that as Seagate buys back 10.5% of its diluted shares and boosts its dividend generously with the operating cash flow generated during the last reported quarter, this is no time to bail out of STX. I agree with your Strong Buy recommendation.

    • Unless you are wanting to be in cash rather than stock, the decision to take money off the table should IMO be based on having another company in mind that you want to switch your investment over to. If nothing has changed in your reasons for buying STX in the first place, then stay with it. Of course, I am speaking from the position of an investor, not a trader. Over the long term, investors do better than traders. Look at the AAPL charts and imagine what you would have done 5 years or so ago. I'm not saying STX is another AAPL, but as long as a company is reporting good results, why get out? My cost basis is right about the same as yours so the dividend is returning us about 8% on our investment. That is hard for me to walk away from.

 
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