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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • alienation_666 alienation_666 Mar 11, 2013 12:18 PM Flag

    The Rally-Nearing the End, or Just Beginning?

    For those oldtimers who remember the beginning of the great 1982-2000 bull market, it probably seems like deja-vu all over again. After hitting a low of 772 in 1982 the market went on to a new all time high in 1983 on its way to 11,772 by 2000. In 1983, we heard the same skepticism and warnings we are hearing today.

    FYI, the DOW has typically risen another 28% after setting an all time high, which puts it over 18,000.

    The current consesnus earnings estimate for the SP500 sees earnings growing from $112 in 2013 to $125.4 by 2014. Historically, the mid range valuation for the SP500 is around 15. Europe's problems and U.S. budgetary issues have depressed the SP500 valuation to a range of 12 to 13. It has started to recover over the past five months.

    Applying a P/E range of 14 to 15 to the 2014 SP500 earnings forecast, I get a range of 1756 to 1881.

    While a 5% to 10% correction is always possible along the way, it looks like we have more room to run.

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