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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • go_gatrz go_gatrz May 2, 2013 7:34 AM Flag

    The age old question: STX or WDC?

    SouleC hasn't been around much to keep throwing that question up, I haven't been saying much ... simply too much B.S. being posted. But my answer is the same: both.

    Each will be making solid money. STX returns a better dividend, and still needs to buyback ~100Mill shares over the next 18months. WDC has stronger management and bigger cash pile (and it's time to start asking that question again ... what are they going to do with it?).

    STX actually raised some mobile prices? There appear to be some constraints within the industry holding prices stable and supply in check. That's good for the manufacturers.

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    • less than 3 trading days later and $4 higher, have you figured it out yet goratz, moron?

      And way to sell out of STX in january. Too bad you didn't get back in.

      • 1 Reply to pipster1324
      • Walty - you are still a putz. You can't even post as yourself so you try to imitate another person.

        And once again, it's you left out in the cold while I laugh all the way to the bank.

        In this thread from Feb. 20:
        http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/STX/#mbt=Slowing%2520marchi%25u2026&mbl=http%253A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fmbview%2Fthreadview%2F%253B_ylt%253DAnYBFfStq_LbBRysMJIb_5HeAohG%253B_ylu%253DX3oDMTB2OHBjOG42BHBvcwMyMgRzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-%253B_ylg%253DX3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-%253B_ylv%253D3%253F%2526bn%253D5c433f64-1035-33ad-9ddf-980703370657%2526tid%253D1361288485129-7c99ae9c-e3aa-43ab-b359-958935697f66&mbtc=mb-tab-topic

        "go_gatrz • Feb 20, 2013 3:06 PM

        Time to start tip toeing back in. Days like today (down 4%+ for no apparent reason) are all the trading cartel's work. But I'm pretty sure demand is exceeding forecasts. Either the distributors kept stock too lean, or the manufacturer's were too conservative, but there has been real shortages of drives for the last 3 weeks. Only now have some supplies dribbled back in. And prices are pretty stable.

        STX has backed off the highs much more than WDC."

        Oh, and have I told you lately to ESAD???

    • Both.

    • WDC v. STX?

      It seems to me that all the current momentum is with WDC. Just look at the technology and product announcements that WDC has come out with over the last 6-9 months:

      Helium filled drives…
      Nanotechnology Breakthrough
      Worlds first 2.5” 5mm Hybrid Drives
      Investment in Skyera

      At the risk of gravitywave posting another diatribe on the upcoming Bigfoot drive…little seems to be coming out from the STX product development team. At least they have partnered with Virident on the PCIe flash storage front.

      While I agree that both companies are going to benefit from the cloud build out…it seems that WDC is poised to take some more market share in the future. They will also be able to improve their cost model after the Chinese shackles are removed (and they already have a better balance sheet than STX). I have to give the check mark to WDC. Lucky for STX they trade in sympathy.

      • 2 Replies to imrunt
      • Hey runt ...

        Ya know, as gravity may chime in, that they are going to helium is not a great sign. Since the AD technology is falling so far behind the demand curve, they have to figure out ways of stuffing more taco meat ... err, media ... into the shells. That drive will have some real momentum behind it when it spins up (will it be 7200 or 5400rpm??) . STX's response seems to be using shingled media, which is not a real performance winner. WDC seems to be going after the really big drive market, STX maybe after the archival (sub-nearline) market.

        That 5mm drive will take some selling. It has a non-standard interface, so how thrilled will OEMs be to be single-sourced? And the target market - tablets? - while it seems large, how large will it be for large capacity storage? We seem to be going into cross-currents: on the one hand, the cloud expansion is driving the high end HDD market, which is driven by all the low capacity tablet & smartphone market. Of course, the grand plan, if you watch the Microsoft ads, is to basically turn the tablets into notebooks (take a tablet, add a keyboard, then a pen or mouse ... and viola ... a notebook). So maybe a really small HDD is the next add-in.

        From a management standpoint, I think WDC is still better. That has proven successful, if not fitful, over the long-term. STX seems more shareholder friendly from the standpoint of getting money back on shares. A much higher dividend, and with a stated commitment to get the share count down to 250Mill by the end of 2014, that's over 100Mill shares in 18 months. That's a 28% reduction in share count. If that translates over to share price increase plus that 4% divvy ... hard to beat that.

        On the WDC side, 2014 could be a really big year, as well. They need to get rid of the Chinese shackles and get the SG&A down. If they get that done, watch out. It could boost EPS by 25%, easy.

        Both companies should be good holdings over the next 18 months.

      • You appear to be overlooking the fundamental STX strategy to overcome any innovations WDC may try to bring to the marketplace. STX will continue to muddle forward and simply ignore WDC, effectively denying the marketplace any second source options for products that STX isn't already making. This allows STX to leverage the strengths of its management team in curtailing production.

        This strategy should provide a long enough take-off ramp to get those hybrid drives flying out the door (eventually). And don't forget, STX has a significant investment in object-storage which is about to take off to the clouds as well. Now, if they can just find that "Mr. Right" PE buyer.

    • Heck, I would be completely content to own either WDC or STX...unfortunately I don't own either at this time. They've certainly made some noteworthy share price appreciation. Congratulations to all the WDC-STX shareholders for those gains.

      Actually, I often think that both the WDC & STX Yahoo message boards have some of the most intelligent thread topics going; there are lots of informative posters that put cogent ideas on the table and typically get sincere and objective responses to process. Try the CSCO board if you want a useless dialogue.

      If you were to purchase either WDC or STX today, without currently owning shares of either company, which would you buy and what rational applies?

      CTG

    • You and I agree again, this board needs an Exorcism. My opinion is WDC/SNDK is a good LT combination. I'm out of both WDC/STX as of now but still holding 50% of my SNDK stock. The combination of WDC/SNDK is a good sector play for the future of storage/product mix. It also limits ones risk to a singular sector.

      Without historical data going forward its tough to put a high or low on WDC/STX, but the dividend programs and consolidation have worked with institutions, the key to stock stability.

      I think the correct call on both STX/WDC is a hold today, for those who were focused years back and added one or the other, taking some off the table and holding the rest holds less risk than the past years of wild swings.

      Good Luck!

    • Buy LSI.

    • I agree with your "both" answer....and I will further add that any STX/WDC investor should buy HTCH right now and hold for the next year or so.

 
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