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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • kenhenriksen Dec 10, 2013 6:56 PM Flag

    Analysts are just #$%$

    There are three analysts Needham, RBC, and FBN who have price targets of 51, 50 and 48. So if that is the case why would you not downgrade the stock on valuation purposes as the stock has hit your target. This is why I do not believe anything any analysts say. They are just observers like us and do not have a clue. lol

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    • WELL SAID!!

    • For years, I have taken to task our beloved thundering herd of Analysts for their ineptitude on the drive stocks. While a few have upgraded STX to a buy during the past 6 months, 18 still remain neutral or bearish. Whether it is a matter of incompetence, pride, or other agendas this is laughable. IMHO, the larger the firm the worst has been track record of the Analyst from that firm, i.e. Goldman, CITI, Barclays, and JPM. Even Luczo called the I bank Analysts out for writing FUD to drive trading profits for their firms, which should tell you something about this motley crew.

      The strong market, Luzco's comments coupled with the pressure on short cartel kingpin SAC may have also caused many traders to back away from the seasonal spring/summer short scam.

      Many of them are PC Analysts first and since the PC market stinks, they assumed the drive market should also stink. Most completely ignored the paradigm shift to the cloud and instead were anal on units and thought margins would collapse after the flood, and had flash phobia. They missed two important factors: the 30%+ growth in storage demand and the fact that 75% of data on the cloud will be on hard drives. Only a few Analysts, Needham & Noble, actually had foresight about this. As far as margins go, maybe some of them missed the B school lecture on the pricing power of duopolys?

      The growing popularity of stocks that return their profits to shareholders via dividends and buybacks has been also under estimated by a number of Analysts.

      Now, if things continue as they have so far in 2013, I expect target prices to rise. The key question is whether any of them will have the cajoles to employ a higher earnings multiple on the drive stock instead of the historic range of 6 to 9.

    • OR, they could just raise their target a little higher now! Maybe their target was conservative in the first place.

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