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Publicis Groupe SA Message Board

  • bdparts bdparts Feb 20, 2007 7:42 PM Flag

    yikes!--mor-on NFI ........................ot

    http://tinyurl.com/2cu9or

    first it went to 'book'per yahoo
    now? on its way to 'cash' per yahoo?

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    • BOOOM!

      Yep its ugly.

      Rough notes from the CC.

      Book = 11.73 - 4ish in divs that must be distributed per IRS +~2.oo in GAAP 07 = Book 07 ~ 9.00.

      Probably de-reit in 08

      154M cash 06

      Port around 16B

      2 lrg. deals in feb. 07 but don't know how much bl cash they made.

      Maybe a slip, maybe a mistake but someone said they reduced share ct. to 33M?

      http://www.novastarmortgage.com/pdf-bin/presentations/2006Q4Earnings.pdf

      Need to listen again and check the #s.

      Its worth something but I sure wish I'd left it in the too hard pile.

      • 2 Replies to dave1mn2
      • I have a pastime that has helped my frame of mind on those occasions when I have screwed the pooch, which has happened more than I like to admit. What I do, is to go to sec.gov and look up what professional money managers had to own up to in the wake of the last bear market.

        Christopher Davis made some very glowing comments about Tyco. He mentioned that in the wake of some hit pieces, they initiated a new round of research which established that the accounting was "conservative".

        Bob Rodriguez, the only fund manager to win Morningstar's best of the year in both catgories (stock and bond) reported selling his entire stake of Conseco for pennies per share. And he was one of the big holders.

        Wally Weitz said of Adelphia, "we didn't like the management, but we didn't think they were stealing from us."

        I'm sure you can find other such examples. But the moral is that all of these managers retained their excellent record despite some very embarassing missteps, two of the above three were total wipeouts. I bring this up because I think that being self-conscious is not a good thing and I am to excess. It helped me when I became less worried about it. I've realized of my own mistakes, the faster I come to terms with them the better off I am.

        Best wishes to you.

      • The urge was there Dave, the urge was there :)

    • gotta be some short covering rallies at some point...

      on another subject:
      if we get thru 2012, the next? challenge is 2036:
      http://tinyurl.com/2gvsut

      • 1 Reply to bdparts
      • Hopefully nobody on this message board lost any serious coin on this. I think there is going to be some major bargains in the real-estate area somewhere down the line.

        This market isn't going down, but with all of the blow-up's we are seeing,It makes you wonder.

        Graham said something about speculating at market tops and I think I am beginning to understand what he was talking about.

        Didn't get Nasdaq'ed or NFI'ed, but I do remember getting Level-3'd :)

        Kubrock

 
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