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Publicis Groupe SA Message Board

  • dave1mn2 dave1mn2 Aug 21, 2007 1:27 AM Flag

    A little Bottom Surgery work

    On a roll. Don't worry it won't last :-)

    8-6-07, NFIPRC 5.02 Low of day, 5.0101
    8-7-07, NFIPRC 6.30 Low of day, 6.24
    8-16-07, FCX 68.04 LoD, 67.07
    Today, BJS partial fill 24.37 LoD, 24.37
    Today, BJS Jan 08 25 call, 2.35 LoD, 2.35

    Even with those two very good buys on NFI's Preferred Series C, I'm still underwater but the orders to right size the position profitably are in place and IMO not far off.

    FCX is performing very well, couldn't be happier except that greed made me miss a trimming opp at dbl. These particular shares will be for sale but the rest I think is a core holding +-.

    BJS seems cheap to me and I like the chart but I'm all ears if someone has some insight. Likely to add on pullbacks.

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    • Yesterday I bought ESD and ACAS.

      My feeling on ACAS is that it is higher quality but nearly as cheap as PSEC, so the correction has given me the opportunity to upgrade.

      Re: the subprime mortgage originators, have you looked into DFC? I think that they are more likely to survive than NFI, for a few reasons. First, they originate mainly fixed rate mortgages. So they do not have a reset problem coming. Second, they have a backer (Monish Pabrai) that is willing to add equity here. I don't own it but I've been watching it for a while.

    • nice picks Dave,thanks for sharing.

      although I did my share of nibbling last week...I worry that I'm still too early....

      eg., MON,didn't really fall to a reasonable price,and I've been watching that fr a while....wondering if I'm being over cautious ? I was thinking we'd see the "whites of their eyes" and it hasn't happened yet...

      anyone else ?

      • 1 Reply to hummingbirdair
      • I don't know Hummingbird, when people line up to take money out of banks, I think we have their attention. Most everyone should know someone by now affected by the reset prob.

        I've had several phone calls from friends and family worried about me, wondering how I'm doing. They still just don't get that I've been waiting for this and worse for a long time and make more in this kind of market than any other.

        Too early? For full deployment sure. Looks like I spoke a little too soon on JBS.

        I was really surprised by WEB's buy of BAC. They are heavy in derivatives. I don't see how the govt. is going to find it acceptable to have that many folks declaring bk or being homeless. Whether they should or not I don't think there is a choice but to lower rates enough so that the lenders can work with those that are workable.

        I remember well the stagflation and inflation of the 70s. 79 and 80 inparticular were very hard here. With the high interest rates the early eighties weren't that great either. My first mort was 12.25% and I know someone that paid as high as 17% IIRC. Do you see anyone with the political capital to intentionally do that again?

        They'll cut.