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Publicis Groupe SA Message Board

  • dave1mn2 dave1mn2 Jan 23, 2008 6:38 PM Flag

    Feeling grumpy and taking stock

    Warning, ramble.

    I was feeling kinda grumpy today after deciding to sit on my hands the last few days. I'd used the amount of cash I was comfortable with on some tax loss targets 12/31 and decided the rest was for extreme events. More extreme than we've seen so far. Berk has recovered some but it and FCX's sell off (especially today) didn't help.

    We've heard some folks advise that others should buy mutual funds or hand it to Warren (I'll admit to considering the last more than once) since they obviously can't manage their own money. Well, I always try to be honest in everything cause any other way just doesn't work for me, so I decided to look at my performance relative the indices. Everybody's first bench mark is the S&P right? If you can't beat that then you should buy funds even though supposedly so few professionals can do it over time.

    Since FCX caught my eye today and yes I wanted to buy more but the compartmentalization of the cash horde wouldn't allow it, nor really would asset allocation discipline, I decided to figure my effective cost basis since quicken doesn't take trading profits in to account. After making several trades on a fairly lrg. weighting and counting divs. my cost basis is $36.46 or a little less than half of today�s price. Not too shabby for what is still such a lrg weighting in ~ a yr. and half.

    Then I decided to look at total performance since I started investing in 1983.

    Using Quicken's growth of 10K chart under the performance tab and a to date measure, I'm alone on the chart when measured against all the major indices. Can't even read the others. Comparatively they've flat lined.

    Bumping the time frame forward to the day I first bought berk in late 96 provides some definition and the NAZ almost caught me there for a minute.

    Moving forward Jan 1 to Jan 1, in the 1998 time frame the dow, s&p and naz finally caught me for a bit. The naz by more and for longer but we know what happened next. 2000 finds them at their peak and Berk at its low but even my temporary insanity with LVLT didn't do more than put me briefly at their par. From June of 06 the story changes considerably since I went extremely bearish when everybody else thought it was much more fun to make new highs. That so closely followed by the NFI disaster cost me not just a nearly continuous lead but parity in that time frame. Moving forward to trailing twelve mos. I'm out performing again but that aint sayin much.

    These were to date readings rather than yr. to yr. Quicken will do it for the later yrs. but not for the early. I might play with that later but that avg. seems less important than a cumulative growth of money.

    I used to keep a track record of annual %s but got away from it ... need to change that since that would take into account additional investment, a pretty severe shortcoming to this crude method but this also is just the stock and fund accounts. The RE investments have been good to stellar.

    Just thought I'd pass along one guy's thoughts during a rough time in an effort to assure that I am indeed fit to look after myself :-)

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    • A follow up, just for fun.

      Went yr. to yr. on Quicken's growth of 10K chart comparing performance relative to the S&P.

      Two things,

      1) Quicken's growth of 10K chart apparently does adjust for added capital since 2 relativly significant additions have occured since 1983 due to inheritance with no discernible chart differencial.

      2)For some reason, it won't develope a yr. to yr. chart prior to full yr. 1994.

      The results,

      Outperformance on a yr. to yr. basis, relative to the S&P, has been achieved 11 of the last 14 yrs. A couple of them were squeakers, most not. I don't have clue why 94, in 04 I was busy with other things and IIRC, was mostly in cash that yr. achieving a meager gain. In 06 I was just plain wrong about market direction though not so wrong as to be negative for the yr.

      Still haven't gone through and figured %s or relative performance prior to 94 and with tax season here that will have to be a lower priority.

      The usefulness of this data without corresponding positive and negative %s is incomplete and for full value, I'll need to get that done but since 2 of the 3 underperforming yrs. were still produced gains, it seems safe to assume that trend and direction are clear.

    • Hi Grump
      It hasn't warmed up from our last chat and tonight they're saying teens below. WHAT IN THE HELL AM I DOING IN NEBRASKA :)
      I have started to do some DD on MMR. but I know next to nothing on these. (I don't know alot otherwise) Will keep it on watch.
      Back in the last bear I bought several dollar stocks that were selling under cash and had been beaten up pretty bad. The next year I was up over 200%. I would like to do that every year. I was close to 15% last year. The couple of years before that was pretty dismal. Some plays seem to take awhile to play out. This fall I had several stocks that I shoukd have sold and took my profits,and I knew that they should be sold, but the deer in the headlights came into play. I need to discipline myself to not get greedy and pay the taxman. When the old millionaire was asked how he got rich, his answer was "I sold too soon."


      • 1 Reply to kubrock2002
      • Kubrock,

        9 tonight, 8 tomorrow night and you are north of me.

        As to MMR, I'm no expert here either. I simply stumbled onto the fact that two men I respect from another investment also run this one and put their money on the table. So its a bet on mgmt.

        What work I have done on it makes me see I think, its potential based on probable resource scale but because of the current provable, it does have to be placed in the speculation column rather than investment column and sized accordingly. Jim Bob seems espesially hot about the Main Pass Energy HubTM but I don't know enough to have a strong opinion about that. The gas oil ratio is way outta whack making gas look comparitively cheap and should this continue, help the gas market but because of oil's portability may never truly resume its historical norm.

        ~~~ Back in the last bear I bought several dollar stocks that were selling under cash and had been beaten up pretty bad. The next year I was up over 200%. ~~~

        Sounds great! When do we start :-)

        I'm having trouble seeing myself allow a weighting of such things to accomplish that or keeping my hands off of them long enough even if it did work.