After having laboured over everything I could get my hands on, I am now firmly convinced that there will never, ever be another dividend. I'll explain why:
Approximately 33% of the company Commercial Real Estate loans by balance, or approximately $295MM of $913MM of the loans were impaired as of Q3-2009. The company has reserves for loan losses against these loans of approximately $224MM, or 77%. The only realized loss (charge-off) the company has experienced was in the 3rd Quarter, that being a $25MM charge-off as uncollectible. The footnotes associated with some of the quarterly provisions reflect that some of the loans are in fact, fully impaired and reserved. Due to this fact, it seems HIGHLY LIKELY that we will see in excess of $50MM in realized losses, and possibly as much as $100MM. Give me a break, fully reserved, second lien loans not being charged off for over three quarters? ("The bean counters sitting up front at the receptionists' desk would like a few minutes of your time this morning"). These will be realized losses, are taxable issues and as such this will erase any possibility of a dividend being payable for 2009. I have not said anything about any possible impairment on real estate securities, buckets, etc., etc., etc. Just focusing on the empirical, observable information set forth in front of me, courtesy of Al Gore (the inventor of the net).
There you go.....I've solved the dividend question, once and for all. I also finished the internet. I encourage all of you boys and girls to delve into all of that publicly available information and make yourselves a better investor. If not, trade away, but never bet more than you can lose.
Now, for my final act, since I do not touch the stuff (here), I would like to see if there are any gutsy LONGS or P-U-M-P-E-R-S on this board that are so cock-sure of their skills that they would be willing to bet me (a gentleman's wager, of course) to this effect.
I asked you if you ARE assuming that all longs think a divy is forthcoming. Your post seemed to indicate such...but you have answered otherwise. Thank you.
Also, I said that I can't reply to all your posts; there are too many. I made no statement regarding how many of them I read.
I can count seventeen individuals who've read my posts and either commented on this board to ask a question or, alternatively have sent me an email to my handle.
Once again, you are WRONG. Don't you just hate it when that happens? And at your age?
My comments on this board have not been limited to the dividend question, therefore why would you ask that I assume everyone that owns this stock has an investment premised on a dividend? If, as you say, you have been reading a "lot" of my posts, and you have any sort of recall, you would know that's not the case. That's all.
This is actually pretty easy, and requires no more effort than weeding the garden periodically. It's educational, rewarding for the brain, and hopefully this "rewarding" hobby provides others with just a little bit of clarity. Imagine that, a hobby that also benefits others.......a novel concept.
Excuse me, I'm a life-long Republican........probably the most conservative one you'll ever have a line of discourse with. I can assure you that most Republicans today are actually liberals dressed in sheep's clothing.
This is the funniest part. All politicians are robbing the public blind, and all of the sheep are too stupid to realize it! That's what's so sad, but a humorous comment on the general decline of the intelligence of the average citizen. A "dumbed down" population.....easy pickin's, just like trusting shareholders.........