Nice summary Bshaef. One little quibble. As a long, I'd bet on Ifny at even less than 50/50 given the potential upside. Having said that, I do think it's better than 50/50 that IFNY is an oil and gas company.
the jury has some very compelling facts to consider. why would el presidente be on an aggressive talk show circuit if he had any indication that things are not going well, let alone bad. you know the legal backlash that would cause for him proffessionally and personally? it would not be worth it. if you believe he is a smart man, and he sure seems to be, then exhibit A on the evidence table speaks volumes for the jury's consideration.