I took my profits in recent days after having bought some at $9.80 and $9.65-not that I have any particular insight, but I noticed resistance at $10.40 as well. As most of you know, I'm worried about a financial blowup, somewhere in the world, occurring at any time-so I am quicker than most to harvest a gain and go to cash.
Should I be correct, an ensuing sell-off would create buying opportunities as long as the policy response(s) are more QE out of the central banks. After that I would expect the S&P 500 to get to 2100+ or equal to 2000's high of 1526 inflation adjusted. In the time it takes to get to 2100, with central banks poring on the QE, inflation will become the problem, forcing central banks out of QE. Subsequent interest rate rises will be a huge shock to financial markets as governments will find it hard to sell their bonds without central banks buying them because accumulated deficits and unfunded liabilities will make government debt a bad risk. More QE, at that time, will lead to currency collapses and spiking inflation.
If you don't want to play the next financial blowup, which won't be catastrophic-maybe stocks will go down 10-20%, then hold for 2100+ on the S&P500 and peal off positions once inflation gets above 2.5% on core.