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The Phoenix Companies Inc. Message Board

  • catch682000 catch682000 Apr 19, 2010 5:13 PM Flag

    Analyst Research. Look it up yourself.

    Thompson Reuters has PNX listed as Outperform.
    S & P has a bullish rating on the technical’s.
    Market Edge second opinion has it listed as LONG.
    This company has been around for close to 160 years, that’s a lot of experience.
    You can’t really judge this company on 2009 earnings since a lot of companies income dropped that year.

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    • I would bet your right on your assessement of what will happen.

    • great write up markwilcox. I would gladly take $5 and book 40% and call it a day and move on.

      I would like to add one more possibility.

      The CEO could show positive earnings this qtr to gain respect from street. This is very important because it signals a successful restructure to meet cost needs.

      Then he could quickly do a secondary at $4.50-$5/shr and sell about 50M shares thus diluting existing shareholders but generating very important cash reserves to shore up.

      200-250M would convert to 100 RBC points immediately.

      ratings agencies will have to upgrade then.

    • PNX buyer might look at

      1. State farm partnership

      2. ~60M in earnings via closed block

      3. ~13B in assets which can be generate 5+% return yearly.

      4. Low debt. Wont hurt and might actually help in reducing Debt/Capital ratio of buyer.

      5. Some serious real estate at prime locations.

      6. 100 or so experienced underwriters(what ever remaining there)

      7. Brand name which is 150yrs old. Lot of rich people know this brand hence there is potential to sell any future products once sale is completed and ratings are revised.

      IMHO, The buyer if any will not buy for growth but for value.


      Someone with 250M in earnings a year like PL might want to add the closed block which generates 60M in earnings which amounts to ~20% give or take.


      Finally,Its like buying a Ford truck whose blue book value is 3 times more than what its worth in retail today.

      There are folks who say I already have a truck and I dont need one even if its cheap. There are others who will just buy because they can buy something cheap.

      Finally, who doesnt want to have that Hartford boat building?...any rich insurance CEO might fancy that.


      As long as the UBS guy says buy, I am positive. UBS is also a market maker for PNX I think(not sure)

    • You pumpers show you true colors with stupid comments like these posted. S&P bullish but other side of S&P businesses has them rated as a B company virtually taking them out of PNX's peer group and market. Also yes PNX has been around for 160 or so years that is true but they were a MUTUAL company for 151 of those years. PNX demutualized in 2001 which makes them a stock company and run 180 degrees from how a mutual company would run. Now they have an investment guy trying to fix a insurance company. You pumpers can make a few pennies play with this but you all are a joke thinking this stock will climb past the 3s.

      Great fishing yesterday, 6 striped marlin biggest 190lbs. off the hurricane bank in cabo

      • 1 Reply to emilyryan01
      • For one thing, the analysts have been consistently wrong about Phoenix since the demutualization. For another, a fixed-income guy attempting to suck blood out of a stone is better than the lawyers (Bob and Dona) who ran the company into the ground. Anyone with experience in junk bonds or valuing fixed income in general knows how to pray for par, and praying is a lot easier when you understand the strategy a firm employs to get from "A" to "B". Wehr has got to be thinking about extrating as much value from this dog as possible in the shortest amount of time (before book starts to tank again). The only other option is shoring up the financials Dona destroyed so they can sell something again, and there is nothing wrong with have a fixed income guy do that.

        Hey, I have no stake in PNX. It is too far below book to short and I'd

    • Agree.
      Also, Zacks rated "Strong #1 Buy."
      Motley's 5-Stars.

 
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