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Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. Message Board

  • rhrisch rhrisch Oct 9, 2003 9:44 AM Flag

    Dan Fitzpatrick of Real Money on FDP

    "I first highlighted Fresh Del Monte last week, noting that it had been under steady selling pressure since early August. Last week the stock rallied for four straight days up to the top of the channel but sold off Tuesday on extremely heavy volume. That confirms the downtrend and leads me to wonder if the selloff was a climax or the start of a more significant decline. I'd watch how it trades in the next couple of days. If it moves above $25, Tuesday's action was likely a climax selloff that washed out the last sellers. But if it continues to decline below Tuesday's low of $23.68, then the downtrend is intact".

    A technical analyst is someone who says he is doing great because he scores 50% on coin flips.

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    • Well I, for one, don't hate TAs. They pay all those commissions and capital gains taxes! They help keep brokers employed and the federal deficit in check. What would we do without them? :)

    • http://www.duncecapjokes.com/picture/i/ironybeaver/beaver.jpg
      I think that pretty well sums it up.
      Circus

    • Not to be unkind, but here is my translation of what you wrote:

      "The reason people wait to see a breakout occur is because looking at this chart, either a double top is developing or a decent cup and handle."

      Translation: the stock went up but then stopped going up more.

      "Having said that, I look at the positive money flow occuring last week and the accumulation as the stock has drifted lower, as positive signs regarding which will develop."

      Translation: the stock might go up.

      "When you focus in on the daily chart and see that the huge volume resulted in a reverse of direction from the decline, the charts begin to look as if they are about to reveal some price strength."

      Translation: the stock might go up.

      "The test will be whether the volume remains strong as the price moves higher. The danger would be filling the gap down, or very possibly putting in a higher low."

      Translation: if the stock doesn't keep going up, there is a danger that it will go down.

      All in good fun. :-)

      The Baron

    • I just love people who hate TA.
      BTW, it is alot better to find chart patterns that develop over longer periods of time, so they tend to indicate sustainable moves.
      I also find buying "cheap stocks," an unreliable manner of trading, unless you "Believe" that other people cannot read numbers, or that you hold secret knowledge of value undisclosed to the world at large.
      That being rather unlikely, an investor can either guess at the next move and wait, or take a history lesson of the stock by looking at charts and indicators of volume and volitilty, to see how this may affect future decisions of investors and traders.
      Strictly a choice of approach, but I posted exactly when I purchased my shares so anybody can say whatever they feel like. It will have zero impact on my decisions.
      Regards,
      Circus

    • A guy I work with is a TA and looked at FDP for the first time on Thursday. Told me it was "double topped" and was heading to 20. Then said he was going to short it. It was up 70 cents on Friday. Said he didn't short it. Guess TA's can't believe their own crap most of the time either.

      Granted I bought in at what I thought was a safe price and am so far losing on my purchase. But I don't plan to sell for a while and unlike the technicalists, I have no plans to make or lose money on a stock in the short term. Making, of course, is always better than losing but based on the fundamentals, I saw a stock with rising earnings, beating expectations, good financials, and a low P/E that was, even three months ago, trading below its historical average. Yes, FDP has warts that I've learned about thanks to you guys but 30s for a price in the next 6-9 months seems pretty reasonable. What a tea cup or double top or any other BS can tell us about anything beyond next week is beyond me-- and beyond the TAs as well.

    • I agree with you --it is a load of nonsense. As I said before--Totally Assinine+TA.

      I hope he really does not believe his own drivel and is just putting us on.

    • http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FDP,uu[m,a]wallyyay[pb50!b200][vc60]
      [iUc20!Lf]&pref=G

      The reason people wait to see a breakout occur is because looking at this chart, either a double top is developing or a decent cup and handle.
      Having said that, I look at the positive money flow occuring last week and the accumulation as the stock has drifted lower, as positive signs regarding which will develop.
      When you focus in on the daily chart and see that the huge volume resulted in a reverse of direction from the decline, the charts begin to look as if they are about to reveal some price strength. The test will be whether the volume remains strong as the price moves higher.
      The danger would be filling the gap down, or very possibly putting in a higher low.
      I'll look at it more later
      Circus

    • So, does fdp look as good technically as it does fundamentally Circus?

    • I think this guy, Dan Fitzpatrick, said nothing. Lots of words, but if you parse it into logical statements, there was zero information in there that could be use to predict anything. I find the same is usually true for most statements by people who claim to be experts in technical analysis.

      But this is just my opinion, albeit based upon years of experience.

      The Baron

    • These TA types crack me up. Let's try that paragraph again, but this time let's translate to English all of that techno-jargon such as "selloff", "climax", "downtrend", etc.

      Here is his original:

      "I first highlighted Fresh Del Monte last week, noting that it had been under steady selling pressure since early August. Last week the stock rallied for four straight days up to the top of the channel but sold off Tuesday on extremely heavy volume. That confirms the downtrend and leads me to wonder if the selloff was a climax or the start of a more significant decline. I'd watch how it trades in the next couple of days. If it moves above $25, Tuesday's action was likely a climax selloff that washed out the last sellers. But if it continues to decline below Tuesday's low of $23.68, then the downtrend is intact".

      Here is the English translation:

      "I first highlighted Fresh Del Monte last week, noting that the price had been going down since early August. Last week the stock went up for four straight days, but went down on Tuesday. That leads me to wonder if the stock will go up or if it will go down. I'd watch how it trades in the next couple of days. If it goes up, then it likely will go up more. But if it goes down, it likely will go down more".

      These TA types should stick to astrology.

      The Baron

      • 2 Replies to baron_rothchild
      • Nice translation! Very funny. Technical Analysis is pretty silly really. I mean I suppose it's useful if you want to determine when to buy. For instance if a stock you see as promising has a strong selloff based on something you consider to be non-sense (e.g. FDP's competition in the Pinapple market that people have been talking about for 2 years now), then buy. That's what I did with FDP. I have been following the stock and like it. So, when it went down by 10% in one day, I saw it as a buying opportuinty and picked up shares the next day. Unfortunatly, I didn't get the best price possible. I got $24. But that's not bad. I believe the intrinsic value of this stock is at least in the $30 - $40 range. Now that we're seeing short covering, maybe we'll have a catalyst to get all the way into the $30s sooner rather than later. Good luck to all.

      • well said!

        Or it could go like this......

        A lot of people have been selling lately, if they all stop, the price will probably go up, if they keep selling it will probably go down. Or it could go up and down. Always got a 50% chance of being right. TA=totally assinine.

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