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Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. Message Board

  • dcmorlando dcmorlando Jun 14, 2005 8:14 AM Flag

    anybody home?

    This has got to start looking like a buying opportunity for long term investors. I am having a hard time buying above $26 with the additional uncertainty in the stock; but long term I have a hard time waiting for anything approaching $25. Its already down 30% short term. Does anyone know a reason why this would hit $24?

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    • Big fish,

      I will tell you that if I was long here I would be a little nervous. I think the current pricing of the stock is accurate based on the Q1 guidance and underlying company. What I would be nervous about is guidance being lowered for Q3 & Q4 on the cc. Some things have changed and some things have stayed the same since the last guidance.

      Year over year currency translations are going to turn negative starting in Q3. The pound is way down since the attacks in GB. Ditto the Euro since the constitution was voted down. Add in rising US interest rates and you will no longer have a boost to earnings due to currency translation.

      Pine prices remain bad. No change in oil, still high.

      Dole may be expanding production on the E. coast.

      If they don't pull a rabbit out of the hat this quarter they will have a bad year; and longs will have to wait for 2006 to see substantial price appreciation.

      I had hoped to buy in on a selloff after earnings; now I will put any purchase out a few more months.

      I would think that based on price/dividend it won't fall too far; but I don't see an upside coming out of the cc. imo.

      Good luck.

    • crooked mngmt?

    • Wochenmittel der Abgabepreise f�r Ware der Kl.I auf deutschen Gro�m�rkten in EUR 10.06.2005
      Erzeugnis/Sorte/ SortVerp Herkunft ANANAS Sweet Costa-R 5-8er Karton~11 kg Einheit
      2003/23 16,6
      2004/23 13,4
      2005/22 10
      2005/23 8,7
      +-% -12,5
      ZMP.DE

      • 1 Reply to LeonMusa
      • Yeah, I saw what has been on Agrisol. I have not been paying attention; has this been going on for a few weeks? Thanks for the post. Did you catch the Reuters article yesterday; nothing you don't know, but if you want to read a rehash of issues of Panama bananas there was an article. 6.5 months to 12/31! I don't think they are going to get away with anything near 270; but if they do; can you tell me who is in the best shape in cameroon and the ivory coast? What about that big champaka pine plantation FDP got with Del Monte EU being partially replanted with bananas? Any possibility?

        Not getting Del Monte Pacific has to irk these guys right now.

    • "This has got to start looking like a buying opportunity for long term investors. I am having a hard time buying above $26 with the additional uncertainty in the stock; but long term I have a hard time waiting for anything approaching $25. Its already down 30% short term. Does anyone know a reason why this would hit $24?"

      Just out of curiousity, how do you get such a precise feel for the intrinsic value of the stock? You won't buy at $26+, but have a hard time laying off the stock if it approaches $25?

      • 2 Replies to larryklai
      • Last year it hit its 52 week low of 22.62 just after 2nd qtr earnings. We are coming up on that point now. Since then it has acquired Del Monte Europe and is probably a more valuable enterprise over the long term. Recently went as low at $25.80. Euro exchange rates have not been strong, add in oil, weakening pine pricing, company already advised downward revision to the last 3 quarters of 2005. If we are at $26+ there is a chance of catching it on a down day or just after earnings 40 days away. Can't hit 22.62 again so I am left with a range of 24-26+ at which to buy. Momentum is to the downside; hence I am thinking a buy in price of $25+. I only post to see what others are thinking because of course I am just guessing.

        Has nothing to do with intrinsic value; just the way it trades and what the company expects to happen over the coming months. I was in the stock well past $29; but things have changed. Still like the stock and will get back in just trying to find a good point. Would love to hear the thoughts of anyone else, especially if they are in the same position as me.

      • Why would you not want to buy above 26,when we are on the way to 30 ?

 
FDP
52.18-0.74(-1.40%)May 25 4:02 PMEDT