This mgmt team does not want to run a public company, they will seek to take it private soon. The bottom may be here and the tender will be $17-19 or the bottom may be 12 as you say and the tender will be @$15, but they WILL have to offer a premium. Fidelity, Brandes, and other large inst. shareholders will not go away without getting alot of their money back.
I think there will be a tender at $17.50 in 2007. Investors will laugh and the tender will be raised to $19 and will be successful.