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  • idreamalot2 idreamalot2 Apr 8, 2006 2:30 AM Flag

    The good and bad.

    technically speaking, a disappointing day. I predicted we'd hit 28.50 and we hit 28.58. I thought we would stay positive all day but it disappeared quickly.

    Biggest problem for CMED: no buyers to speak of. A flurry of buying came in the last half hour but was only able to stablize the stock.

    Taking a look at the near chart pattern, it still looks good but hanging on by a thread.
    A real positive would have been if the stock had just held even for the day. Nevertheless, we forgive a little because volume was 33% down from yesterday.

    Unforturnately, the stock's comfort zone has narrowed considerably, and therefore, very little margin of error left. A close above 28 Monday would be very positive. A close between 27 and 27 1/2 gives another "stay of execution" for a day. A close beneath 27 would be negative.

    There is good support in the 24-26 range from last Sept/October. However if we drop below 25.50, we've broken the back of the stock. But most important, 26 would now become the new resistance level. I don't see bad things at that point as long as volume doesn't increase on the downside. I'm guessing that volume will continue to subside at these levels if the stock doesn't recover quickly from here... which would give the stock time to regroup for news of the all important mid-May earnings report.

    Without any news from the company whatsoever, this is entirely a technical matter until earnings come out. I don't think there's much more room for decline AS LONG AS WE DON'T GET BAD NEWS.

    The near term outlook will continue to be appraised day to day until I get a firmer handle on the chart pattern. We can't tell too much from the volume quite yet, so I'm relying on the chart pattern.

    I'm now under water in the stock with a sizeable position. I'm holding and can't justify a sell until I see some news from the company or negative volume increases without explantion. Good luck to all.

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    • fritzdutchrio,

      Nice to hear from you during your intense schedule which you pursue.I have the following answers to your queries:

      I do not expect to hear from Charles Zhu until end of working day China time on monday.China is about 11 hours ahead of us I am expecting to hear from him by 11 am est on monday.

      Motley fools and everybody else has a right to make a general statement on whatever they want to present in their article.

      I have not come across any statistics which "supports that any company with real product and real income and growing at 60%++ yoy has failed imho"

      In US if you want to sell any medical device or services you must get FDA approval first.CMED in its last cc mentioned that they want to start working on seeking FDA approval in 06.

      The conference was sponsored by EDAP among others and they were discussing applications of prostate cancer only.

      EDAP conference was successful and awareness was created for HIFU technology which CMED uses for treatment of other cancer & tumour etc.

      CMED currently operates HIFU & ECLIA in China and their next target country is US.

      I do sincerely hope that you are properly "diversified in your portfolio...never ever have just one or 2 stocks ...go for at least 5 with the same amount of total money just divide into 5 stocks...10k into 5 stocks =2k in each stocks even if it buys only 50 shares".

      "There is lot of noise/ confusion/theories being floated whole day.....but when stock is down everybody is losing money irrespective of their proclaimed expertise...fundamentals/technical"

      Let us wait till CMED turns UP so we all can make money and then claim victories for our "well publicised expertise....I mean this sincerely"

      No theory bats 100% ....the best average we all hope for is 51% of being right in a short span of time$$$$$$$$

      Good luck to all traders of CMED long or short....the idea is to make money if one can do it in their time/risk framework.


    • Saleem,
      Would now be a good time to send another email to CMED-IR on behalf of disappointed/discouraged long-term investors, who believe in the company & products ?
      The effect of the Secondary confusion should be mostly gone by now.

      I would be a lot more comfortable if we were working on the 32-35 congestion area, than in the 26.3-28.5 basing area. Any bad news at this point would be devasting, not just discouraging, as idreamalot post about "The good and bad" at 2:30am pointed out.
      (My average oversized holding is in the 32 area, by averaging down.)

      • 1 Reply to edmauer
      • Ed,

        I definitely write to IR CMED and see if they will respond"during this quiet period".

        I do know and feel "how everybody is deep under water with their investment with CMED"

        My personal cost is $32.43 and I will not average down...hopefully I will buy more on its way UP.

        I am not as "pessimistic as my other fellow longs on the bottoming tape action of CMED"

        "CMED is not doing anything different when it is in a bottoming phase"

        I do not have "any deep technical knowledge of stock movement and do not care too much about yesterday's picture...I always look forward which no chart tells you anything"

        "Charts is always 100% accurate after the fact and try to tell you how far any stock can fall based on yesterday's picture"

        CMED can & will turn UP on a dime and "blow away all the so called resistance in 5 trading days imho"

        CMED must be looked from "fundamental point of view and they have not changed and I am not expecting any change as far as I can see"

        CMED recent tape action has everything to do with "low float & secondary offering"

        Same 2 reasons will be "the catalyst of a major turnaround and we will never look back after fully discounting all issues"

        "My investment thesis for CMED is based on current & future Sales / earning growth which is in excess of 50%+++ yoy for both category"

        Based on my simple projection of $1.40 for this fiscal year ending march 07 CMED is trading at 19 pe.

        I do not have any other stock in my portfolio which has that kind of growth rate and trading at this low pe of 19.

        I cannot find in my extensive research any high growth rate stock which is trading at 19 pe.....they are all at anywhere from 40 to 60 pe.

        "I am not in CMED to make $2 trade which some longs are hoping for...I am not part of daytrader or fast money syndrome".

        I am in CMED for the long haul and suggest to all that they "pay more attention to fundamentals of this company than tick by tick tape actions"

        By paying attention to fundamentals of CMED which does not guarantee next tick action but will give all of them "an overall comfort level for future"

        Now back to technicals "John Murphy's outfit is predicting price target of $42 after CMED fridays close"

        " is predicting 100% overall bullish and 70% positive trade on CMED after friday's close.....their target for CMED is $32.39 and $33.69 for extreme rally"

        "CMED 50 dma is $32.61 and RSI is 39.41.which tells me that we are still in deeply oversold condition......a very good sign of upcoming reversal"

        So there it is "an entrepneurial interpretation of CMED either you believe in it or you dont but gives you another perspective"

        I dumped all my ATYT and took furthr position on Bema Gold BGO on friday.

        Current portfolio CMED,GRRF & BGO

        Looking forward to next week tape action on my entire portfolio.....

        Good luck to all traders and believers in CMED,


    • I agree that, when there is no news, technical is all there is to work with. That is how I got into this stock, pretty much. (I am trying to catch up with the research now.)

      A stock like this one is always all over the place, up a point or two and down a point or so the next day.