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China Medical Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • saleemakhtar87 saleemakhtar87 Apr 12, 2007 9:03 AM Flag

    CMED'S Inconvenient TRUTH !!!

    CMED tape action or LACK of.....is a CLASSIC example of FRIVOLOUS analysis vs "inconvenient truth of Sales & Eps SLOWING down"

    CMED FISH acquisition is NOT going to do anything for the NEXT 12 months in terms of EPS.....there is MORE expenses associated with the MUCH TALKED about gain of $20 million in Sales in 3/08.

    CMED EPS projection is continously being RATCHETED DOWN for this & NEXT year..see yahoo finance estimates.

    I personally know that CMED has VERBALIZED all the CHALLENGES associated with FISH acquisition and fiscal 3/08 in SERIES of conferences......but investors are not READING CMED LIPS ????

    Unless CMED shows EPS growth ACCELERATING in 3/09.....CMED remains a $2 rangebound....and that is an "inconvenient truth"

    In my opinion you can KISS GOODBYE to charts & fundamentals until 3/09......

    There are 20,000 other stocks to invest in.....who are all DISCOVERED by traders...

    So.... GO AHEAD ....take your... PICK & MAKE YOUR DAY $$$$

    Good luck to all.

    Saleem

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    • Hi Ed ..

      1. Using 22->28 as bottom->top of long drawn out saucer, I'd give a target of 34-35 or thereabouts, after 28 breaks to the upside. It may be a while with this stock.

      2. The only change affecting your IBD short number is slightly increased average volume over X days (whatever X IBD uses). If the average volume per day goes up, and the number of shorts out stays fixed (which it has to, until updated in last week of this month) you can estimate what will happen to the IBD number tomorrow. :)

    • Hi Bux,
      What is the Flying Saucer destination ?

      It will be interesting to see IF shorts are lower tomorrow. IBD had 6.1 days to cover this morning (per IBD).
      Ed

    • >>>CMED is doing a classical saucer formation, with the expected "low volume, almost flat-line" bottom. The symmetry suggests the move up will start --- I'll guess next week, but who really knows? Volume may come early or may come late. It doesn't matter.


      Here we are. Saucer shaping up. Keep your fingers and eyes crossed. :)

    • CMED said that 08' guidance would be given on the 4th quarter CC. I know this is different from the past but this is what was said. There is the possibility that someone mistakingly made that comment.

    • Hi Diane,

      Read series of analysis by you ,Prentur & Bux re CMED.

      It is extremely important to be COMFORTABLE with holding any stock..........All 3 of you seems to be doing just that.

      Also all 3 of you are willing to WAIT for that MOMENT when SUN is SHINING BRIGHTLY on CMED.

      We ALL had to LEARN from our misfortune... and sometime there is tremendous knowledge gained in the process.

      As you have RATIONALIZED based on your PAST action/selling ....missing the big move.....is NOT a good feeling.

      CMED hopefully.... when it will give GUIDANCE for 3/08 in august...will give a CLEAR picture of PROFITABILITY....

      Currently analyst are playing with estimates..only 2 analyst have last qtr estimate of 32 cents and current qtr only 1 analyst is predicting 27 cents.....while the annual estimates are given by 5 ????

      I personally think that CMED current MALAISE has something to do with secondary & convertible....where selling options are generally permitted.

      The low volume is an indicator of people like me have moved ON to other tradeable opportunities.

      I personally do not understand the price action on CMED..

      Based on actual PE...this is a $27++ stock based on PAST earnings.....so someone is CONTROLLING the price...and I cannot even venture as to when this will change....as this has GONE ON too long ALREADY.

      All I am hoping that the current MALAISE will end so @ least fair value of $27++ is there.

      Good luck to you.

      Saleem

    • donal_n_fred_take_the_fifth_soon donal_n_fred_take_the_fifth_soon Apr 13, 2007 9:28 PM Flag

      Crap analysis.

      RUBBISH!

      Cheers. Donal

    • Bux,
      The truth is in what happens. SNHY and LIFC did the same routime and then jumped up. So I hope I learned from that experience. My 84 year old father still trades and would not touch a chinese stock on a bet. He uses Vector Vest very conservative rated CMED at a value of $45+ with the current stats. They recommended hold.

      I have a professional job and do not have time to trade.
      As Makinlootz said this is not a good trading stock. It will eventually go up and financially it is rated number 2 with money and value in Chinese stock on American exchanges. It is currently at a bottom fishing price.
      So I hold.

      Good luck I believe we will be out of the house of pain
      sooner than later.

    • Diane,

      also keep in mind:

      1. the new China index from Nasdaq. First the talk, and the index will start sometime later this month or early next month.

      2. Funds that need china exposure will need to match the index. That means they must buy shares. The market-makers may be accumulating shares by depressing price for all of these china stocks, with this in mind.

      3. CMED is doing a classical saucer formation, with the expected "low volume, almost flat-line" bottom. The symmetry suggests the move up will start --- I'll guess next week, but who really knows? Volume may come early or may come late. It doesn't matter.

    • Hi all,
      Looking at CMED, MR, china, kong snda bidu since Feb fall all have been moving sideways with half the volume they had before February. The drop created a fear which will gradually disappear with time. I don't believe there is any connection between earnings and price. Look at MEDI selling with a PE 258 times earnings.

      CMED was hot when it was new, perhaps it has had its"fifteen
      minutes of FAME."

      Chinese companies currently out of favor. I do not believe this will last. The last time I lost patience and sold I loss the potential to make alot of money. Ironically I sold to buy CMED. Sideways does not concern me. It is not exciting but it will turn.

    • Hi Idreamalot2,

      Welcome to the world of OPTIMIST......it will make you FEEL better if nothing else....and who knows you MAY PICK UP some $$ along the way.

      To me 200 dma is a classic telltale of the health of any stock.....irrespective of the name and I DO adjust accordingly.

      No.... I do not CLAIM to KNOW next 6 months price on any stock...but DO come UP with some good guesses.

      I normally position for 2 weeks max on any stock..but due to stock trendlines ...I may be STUCK longer....in plain english....if a stock goes down...I try to determine with DD if this is a PERMANENT CHANGE or just adjusting to market/analyst/MM/Hedge fund ACTIVITIES....so try to show some patience........most of the time it is a PRODUCTIVE pursuit and SOMETIMES HAVE to ACCEPT reality of life...in plain english..book a LOSS.

      ELLIOTT WAVE were predicting market CRASH long before feb 7% correction...and IBD...you & Ed know the story there...I do not subscribe to their eALERT.

      I am a realistic DREAMER and CONTINOUSLY do my OWN DD...but like to SHARE my conclusions with others for FWIW....with my REAL name @ the bottom.

      I trade stocks with a single purpose....to make money and CUT my LOSSESS ASAP.

      My portfolio is ALWAYS posted..... so there is no mystery when I am IN or OUT of any stock.

      I am not MARRIED to any SINGLE IDEA...but am very OPEN MINDED as to the NEXT purchase or SALE & stay very well DIVERSIFIED !!!!!

      FLEXIBILTY is very important and you have to be QUICK FOOTED in making the RIGHT MOVES....sometime the BEST MOVE is to SELL THE DOGS..........

      A great investing philosopher said.....when a stock is SICK...they DIE.............

      I will conclude with an OPTIMISTIC note from John Lennon's famous song..........

      IMAGINE ALL the $$$$$$...if you make the RIGHT MOVES in the markets..........

      Saleem

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