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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

  • hounddawgie hounddawgie Feb 7, 2009 3:18 AM Flag

    Is AGO a viable business?

    Say what you like about book value, insurance acctng, etc. etc. The future profitability of AGO depends on the future for the business of credit improvement offered by monolines today. Will it remain a viable business? Wrapping bonds with insurance is similar to buying a 'put' on every stock purchase you make. While the monolines reduce the cost to the bond issuer via credit improvement, the real value it offers the bond purchaser can be debated. The bond investor probably can achieve an equal level of protection via diversification without suffering the cost of insurance. It is my opinon that one needs to value a monoline (like AGO) based on its cash flow rather than its book value. The market seems to be doing just that. The future demand for AGO's insurance wrappering products is the key to its cash flow. Time will tell the story.

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