its earnings. If you look at how the stock has been trading lately it is moving in line with the market. This means the price reflects the bad news on the earnings preannouncement and now will trade up or down with the markets which both have stayed withing a tight trading range. If we do not get anymore bad news with respect to this quarter when they announce it will probably just continue to trade as is. The only way to start the train rolling uphill is if they give better than expected guidance which I'm not sure they can at this point. I also don't expect them to guide down drasically for the next quarter but will probably give some glimmer of hope with respect to the bailout package and their pending merger with FSA. With respect to Wilbur Ross, I would love to see him personally or his company purchase more shares as this will boost confidence in other shareholders to at least hold their shares and buy more to average down.
This is not a point in time to expect too much from AGO, by the "numbers". Management is the key element to watch as they combine FSA with their existing operation. The "candle" is burning on both ends; their Balance Sheet is under assult and maintaining a positive cash flow is going to be a challenge in this economic environment. Keeping the ratings agencies satisfied is also going to be a challenge.
The Dexia/FSA deal doesn't look as good as it did two months ago, but it should be a great deal if we can get some sort of help from economic conditions. The credit markets need to keep improving. I hope that investors soon turn away from Treasuries and start seeking higher yields in muni and corporate bonds. Mortgage backed securities need to show that the bottom is behind them. Yeeesh! We need to know the "bottom" is behind us on all levels. AGO could crumble if economic conditions continue to deteroriate at a log rate.