Q3 on November 2nd, we'll see then. What scares me is that only like 2 or 3 percent of AGO is traded by people like you and me. That means that all that short interest is institutional, and they know a hell of a lot more than I.
Don't sell yourself "short" knowledge-wise; remember, interest rates are nonexistent right now and the dollar is in the toilet, so opportunity costs for shorting or holding short are not really normal from an historical perspective. The government types like to point to the stock market as an indicator that their economic policies are working. The main reasons the stock market is going up, in my opinion, are unprecedented Fed liquidity and nonexistent interest rates, resulting in an international trashing of the U.S. dollar. Once interest rates start going up, the snapback in the dollar will put the stock market into a nasty slide, including commodities.
If you remember the "nominal" interest rate as opposed to the "real" interest rate, I would say that a good argument that the "real" is way higher than the "nominal" is that banks are not lending any money. They take it in and just "clam-up" with some exceptions.
I would argue that "i" is artificially low right now, that the "real" rate is much higher. Inflation is a wild card; it's classic definition is "too many dollars chasing too few goods"; but, in the current environment, we are having the affects of inflation primarily due to currency debasement, courtesy of the United States government policies.
Another reason the politicians are so eager to exploit this "crisis" is to get their policy-related power-grab in place. Don't know if you've read the health-care bill, but I have; both the House and Senate versions; not the ethereal bills they are merging in the Senate right now, but the basis for them. The House bill makes numerous changes to existing Internal Revenue Code. Massive changes that allow the I.R.S. to do pretty much anything it wants with your health and financial records. I was astonished to the point of loading the full-text into M.S. Word to see how many changes in H.R. 3200. Nearly EVERY OTHER page. Dare I say; more to do with your money than your health? Anyway, I digress. My apologies. :)
When I posted before. And I don't read Roubini that often. A massive carry trade involving the U.S. dollar. Hope everyone has some dry powder left. I think we'll all get a second bite at the apple in the next six months, maybe sooner. Currency types may make some money on short Yen positions if/when that happens. For some reason, thinking of these angles also reminded me of this article: