AGO is somewhat plagued by their portfolio of mortgage backed debt instruments. Non-performing investments are a worry, but after today's Case/Shiller Index release, things in housing don't seem to be getting worse, but there are few hitches to that. Part of the improvement in housing is due to govt. "juicing".
When AGO reports earnings, the first thing I am going to look at is how well their portfolio of assets performed. If there is still plenty of cash flowing (interest) it should go a long ways to ease tensions. The percentage of non-performing mortgages of the Alt-A variety is something of importance.
Rest assured there are going to be more write-downs, but I will be more focused on the pace and quantity of them.