Sean? Let me guess, you are pooring over MBIA's Q3 results. I wouldn't bother. AGO & MBI's insured book and underwriting standards don't resemble each other's at all. But then again, I'm all in on AGO call options for the next 3 months with no puts to hedge. I guess I can't afford to be pessimistic right now, my wife would kill me.
I've given up trying to guess earnings with all the accounting adjustments from derivatives and MTM accounting. It's anybody's guess. What's really important is how much new business did it have in the quarter and how is it's market share changing? If these numbers look good I'd expect a favorable response in the stock price and better FSA bond prices(not that I'm in any hurry to sell).
I'm expecting operating results to be good. The addition of FSA's operating income and the cost savings of consolidating FSA's and AGO's overhead might be significant, assuming most of the FSA acquisition costs were sunk in Q2.