No, it doesn't say it all. This is excellent news under the current circumstances. By year end, Fitch and Moodys will give AAA ratings due to the increase in capital. AGO trades off of three factors. It's non-GAAP operating income, it's tangible book value, and the ratings provided by Fitch and Moodys. All three of which look to be falling together to be a fifty dollar stock in no time. But don't take my word for it, ask Wilbur Ross. He'll no doubt be fronting most of that three hundred mil.
Chance of Moody's upgrading is near nil. The $300 mm raise is necessary to maintain Aa3 going forward, hence the continuing CreditWatch on AGC and AG Re.
I think recaptures from primary cedants to AG Re as contractually allowed and discussed in 10-Q may be near term events. Repercussions are not clear, but UPR (factored in ABV) would go down if unearned premiums are clawed back.
I am not sure how much and which cedants can take back exposure, as AGO does not reveal which counterparties have right to terminate treaties and at which IFS rating that right becomes effective.
You're great Sean. I love pondering your posts. I would love to take you for a beer sometime and learn what you know. But I've also been reading your pessimism about AGO since it was a $10 stock. Could you tell me, what level of capitalization would AGO need for an upgrade? And, considering how conservative and pessimistic Fitch and Moody’s have been "forced" to become lately, why didn't they simply downgrade AGO more than they did, rather than place them on "watch"? Did they say, "Hey, we'll only downgrade you one notch if you promise to make another offering"?