And me, too. I got rid of mine this morning @ 21.03, after buying in @ 22. Painful.
But Michael Shozer sold his 40K shares in the last few days.
Maybe they know something we don't?
Thanks again, Greg.
From a macro view of the economy, with increase in infrustructure projects as part of job creation, wouldn't we see lots of muni bonds issuance? With AGO being the only player in the game, the stock should poised to benefit.
I am missing something?
When it comes to guarantying debt, the guarantor needs to have a better rating than that of the debt (if it were not insured). Otherwise, the debt won't get a better rating and there would be no point in paying a premium to have it insured. Investment grade ratings are necessary for AGO to write new business.
On the other hand, even if AGO lost its ratings, it would still have plenty of revenue. When muni's are guaranteed, the entire premium is paid up front, but the revenue is recognized "as earned". That is, it is spread out over the life of the bond. Since the struggle with keeping its ratings up is more a matter of Fitch and Moody's pessimism for the economy than it has to do with AGO's reserves, AGO would survive a downgrade quite easily. But the stock price would tumble irregardless. It did just that last year, but AGO's earnings reports kept brining the stock price back up again.
I am one to believe that the economy is in a recovery, and that through the course of the recovery Moody's and Fitch will reinstate AGO's AAA ratings. At which point, AGO will be a $50 stock.
Why is the company so obsess about moody's ratings?
I remember Buffet selling a his stake in moody's, so does that put the relevance of these ratings agencies in question?
Why are there so much concern about the business model? Insurance on debt is no different than life, auto.. is it not?
Don't think I read too much into it. With the consolidation of offices, and general restructuring of AGO Ltd., workforce cuts already announced, etc., I don't think its that big of a deal. As far as the wife's sale, who knows. Wasn't much considering how much he has. She's probably just pissed he got the boot. Insider selling is never as indicative as insider buying is.
This on top of 25M new shares hitting the market was enough to get me out today, I've already lost bunches but I'll be back in as soon as the trend reverses, and it will. Probably pretty soon.