I think the $12-$13 levels will be tested as the market heads south. An amazing 50% drop in 2-3 months. A negative outlook from all rating agencies and lower new business production in a robust muni market doesn't help AGO even if they have 100% of the insured market.
I think Wilbur Ross will start to look for buyers since he probably has little confidence in management.
A little over a year ago when the market was cratering; all the big bank stocks were getting creamed. All the mavens were calling BAC, et al, "zombies" that were just about to go bankrupt. I had already decided that BAC was not going bankrupt and invested virtually all my capital into BAC. When it hit 2.5 I cringed; but, held on and, sure enough, all the big banks stayed alive and recovered most if not all their losses over the intervening year. When fools flee; buy.
This company weathered the biggest bond wipe out in the last 80 years and emerged the sole survivor with a de facto monopoly in a lucrative business. Next, the world's richest man saw an opportunity and took a run at them and fell flat on his ass. Not only are they still in business, they are racking up record profits. It appears the market does not appreciate their singular ability to navigate an industry that many say should not even exist and the rest of the world has failed miserably at. The broken reputations of all their competitors and all the investors who invested in those companies cry out for vindication. The charge is they don't know what they're doing, yet all the facts say otherwise. Very curious dynamic playing out here.
from a technical viewpoint, i don't see one semblance of where this stock can ever get back to where it was 3 months ago at $24. 3 months ago i owned ago. i sold it and have remained interested in it because it is a broken stock with little or no upside future to it. this may be a good indicator as to how the general markets will perform going forward. so far to date, the general markets are rattled, but not broken yet like ago. but things do change rapidly and you must be quick with your fingers otherwise you can get cought up in all this hullabaloo chasing bad equities like ago.