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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

  • white_sox_curse white_sox_curse Jun 11, 2012 2:19 PM Flag

    Two scenarios with Moodys

    Two good & one bad

    Good:
    1) Ratings kept at Aa3 with stable outlook. Keeps their frnaschise to underwrite more munis.
    2)Downgrade to A2. This will force management to release capital since they have far more than what they need to keep an A2 rating. Would see share buybacks or bigger dividends. Run-off scenario may happen to

    Bad:
    Downgrade to A1. With that rating new business underwriting will shrink but management will not feel the need to go into runoff or release capital to shareholders. The company will basically be in a standstill for years to come.

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