Cash flow is diminishing AND earnings per share. On a discounted cash flow basis, the stock is probably valued properly in the 20's (present value), depending on how risk adjusted valuations are priced going forward. A few muni defaults would improve pricing and margins for AGO's products. If merger and acquisitions pick up, AGO could play a role in providing its products in the structured finance arena, where higher risk produces much higher rewards. Too much money is around seeking any return, money is too cheap for low risk borrowers. I think AGO will trade in the 15's again this year. IMO the stock is a sell here above 18.