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JDS Uniphase Corporation Message Board

  • dannyt627 dannyt627 Dec 31, 2007 8:29 PM Flag

    Just a Prediction

    JDSU will report a profit on a GAAP basis fiscal Q1 of 2008 (Q4 2007) and Here is why
    They stated that revenue will be between $372-$394 - This has always been their strongest quarter and I predict they will come in at ~$390MM
    Cost of revenue of ~.625 of sales this puts them at ~$244MM for GM
    Subtracting average OE (operating expanses)and accounting for interest and taxes put JDSU at ~$7MM GAAP profit.
    My prediction is that they will be somewhere between $3-$8MM GAAP positive.

    Any educated contradicting thoughts are welcomed.

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    • I might as well chime in with my prediction. I will be extremely disappointed if they are not GAAP positive this quarter. Last quarter they lost GAAP $6.9m based on $357m revenues. Taking into consideration an additional $2m in cost savings realized from their restructuring program plus an additional $15m to $35m increase in revenues (372m and 394m), this should put them over the top. There is also the added bonus that December quarter is the best for T&M products which carry the higher margins. Of interest this CC will be the Finisar vs JDSU/Picolight combo on the SPF+ front. Last CC for Finisar they alluded that they were losing business and facing stiffer competition from one supplier. Lets see if JDSU/Picolight are identified as the offending supplier .... supplier.

    • True, I said this before; regardless of the reasons, the bottom line is to know where a stock is heading. No one knows with 100% certainty but from my perspective, and I told you this before, at least for the ultra-short term, the current up swings that JDSU had were a selling opportunity. Those who sold short above 14 could have covered in the low 13.
      Based on what we have in front of us for now is bearish.
      I must say again that indeed the trading action that we had on Monday could turn out to be a bottoming action and a bullish pattern could emerge out of it, I have my doubts but not totally discounting it. I let the market tell me what�s next.

    • Am I reading you correctly? Are you saying GM (gross margin) is @ 62.5%?

    • Nice reasoning.

      Nals? Want to chime in?

      • 1 Reply to pasdechat2003
      • Good Morning and Happy New Year. Pas asked me if I want to chime in.

        Not really. I think I have stated my position for this quarter.

        I took Soft of ignore to read her analysis. I agree along Soft's line of reasoning. There will be no GAAP+ this quarter. If you read carefully she says '390 million I doubt'. Assumptions are made starting with Sales. I believe they will fall short of the upper limit of their guidance by as much as 15 million. I am suggesting Sales in the 375 million range. Reasons: some delayed orders, scheduled to occur; but did not. Budget flushes did not occur or were minimal compared to last year. Most of the competition have reported down numbers, or are projecting flat sales, with reduced margins. THEN WHY WOULD JDSU MAKE THE UPPER END IF NO ONE ELSE IS? Thus I agree with Soft that the Assumption of Sales will not occur. Your margin analysis is probably incorrect as well. Again most of the competition is reporting margin constraints--as they are shooting eachother over business. To use KK's own words, "too many FO Gear Producers chasing too few companies.

        As reported by Orange in his China Trips and confirmed to me by many other sources, labor costs are skyrocketing in China. This may not have affected JDSU, if they had solid Contracts holding the line. But could be a factor. Also there will be continuing costs of a 400 reduction in Headcount that was started and ongoing.

        I have heard some third party confirms of reduced sales and the margin could come in at closer to 32% than 37.5%.

        I am probably 2 weeks from getting some info that I get every quarter. But I would again agree with Soft, and I am leaning 'not predicting yet', that the CC. will provide us with a 3 to 6 cents per share loss on a GAAP Basis. And I am still leaning towards 6 as compared to 3 cents, in terms of loss.

        So I have chimed in! Do not know why? since I am not really a stockholder--outside of 145 shares that is stuck in some IRA account, that I cannot get rid of. Anyway thats it for now folks.

    • From an accounting perspective how do you think they will write-off the recent purchase/acquisition?

 
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