ZNGA is a stock symbolic of greed, arrogance, and hype--and oh yes, addiction. Anyone with a position in this stock should read up on the history of the Dot Com bust. How short is the human memory. A short primer on Wikipedia--"Dot Com Bubble" Daily volume charts have implied for some time that this stock is overvalued. The secondary offering will prop up Mr. Pincus' personal bank balance. The message board postings abound with the theme of greed with no actual analysis. Hence, we have, "ZNGA $17 tomorrow," or "Facebook IPO, then $25- ZNGA." This should be disturbing to any rational investor. Furthermore, try borrowing the shares to stake out a significant short position. I suspect you will have difficulty. This is another huge warning sign. ZNGA is being hammered on a day when the market is stable, slightly up. There's systemic market risk being ignored. A 500 point down day is long overdue. The spiritual revolution is coming. Major sell signal remains in effect. Target price: %9.50
My due diligence is entirely lacking to the extent that I have never played any of the ZNGA games, so I am not intimately familiar with the product. I have also never sent a text message in my life, so I am a bit out of step. But we have a company valued in the many billions of dollars which makes nothing; it is founded in gaming concepts. I spent two years in Asia--China included--working and wandering. The ZNGA model is easily replicated, particularly in China. A serious competitor could be on the scene in short order. No factory needs to be built, as you only need some modern computers and the very best experts in computer graphics. ZNGA already knows how to "borrow" the concepts of others, so this is another possible route. I would think the games are not heavily language based, so this wouldn't even be an issue in China, where highly educated computer people can be had for very little money. And if you say the Chinese people to not have the creative knack, you are entirely mistaken. I would also say this secondary offering is highly suspicious; it is shareholder dilution by any other name. I do realize the employees of ZNGA want to buy their old San Francisco Victorian houses while the stock is flying, and cash is of the essence. But this is a warning sign. There must be greater fools to hold the bag. It is also possible that the Facebook IPO does not go off as planned, and heavy bets have been placed on the symbiotic relationship. There is a nearly 100% assumption that Facebook will go gangbuster, and I am a contrarian. The equities hysteria is at the top. So my short view of ZNGA is, "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Major sell signal remains in effect.
I forgot to mention that I don't smoke pot, though I find it less destructive than alcohol. My former comments were just testing the waters. I have found it most helpful to maintain a sense of humor in life. There might not be anything funny about the future price of ZNGA, unless of course you have a short position.
Monsieur Napier: I really didn't mean to get your blood pressure up. No insult to your mother found here. If she rejects materialism, I would likely find her interesting. As for ZNGA, you needn't stress on that either, despite current weakness. There will be plenty of time to unload a batch--we can always expect some upward bounces, temporary they be. I would suggest you try to beat the CEO, Mr. Pincus, to the finish line. That kind of lifestyle takes considerable piles of cash, and in this case, cash from his fellow shareholders. Happy trading days to you. Major sell signal remains in effect. Target price: $9.50
Funny, my psychiatrist said I am much improved, and we have eliminated Xanex from my diet completely. Dr. Silverstein and I have pooled resources on a short of ZNGA. We will cover at $9.50. The stock will likely go much lower, but no reason to be greedy. It's all in the mathematical probability--you know, those bell shaped curves. The spiritual revolution will entail the utter rejection of mass consumerism and drugs like ZNGA. Prepare now for the journey. It's the long road to Nirvana, one step at a time.
For one thing, there is no 'actual analysis' anywhere on yahoo message boards. The secondary offering is a chimera. If you did any actual analysis, ie computing out ZNGA's revenue stream, you would see that it has a very profitable business model.
The problem here is that you seem to think that you have this secret, this answer to everyone's happiness and that they will wake up and understand things the way you do and follow you into this 'spiritual revolution.' Nobody is going to do anything of the sort, because you do not have any sort of secret to happiness or zen knowledge that isn't already out there in another superior form.
I have no monopoly or secret access to anything, but I do have a green thumb, and my home grown tomatoes are proof. As far as "actual analysis" on the boards, you are correct, but take a look at TBT. I have no position in this stock, but there are some knowledgeable traders here. The message board for TBT generally bears this out. The bond market is a bit more complex than trading in ZNGA, and there are the additional properties of resetting and time erosion in this ETF. For pure gambling mania, check out FAZ. My point is that some message boards are better than mothers; it depends on the issue. Major sell signal on ZNGA.
I like your use of French, but I think Mr. Pincus might qualify for that remark. But can you please provide a rationale, ad hominems notwithstanding, for the ownership of ZNGA? Major sell signal in my book. The longs shall be humbled at the altar of greed.