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Zynga, Inc. Message Board

  • shalom_schwarz shalom_schwarz Jun 22, 2012 9:12 AM Flag

    It's the option expiration stupid

    expiration day, aiming for $6.00

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    • Thanks,,,,,,,,,,,,,


    • Tracker, what happened a week plus back was an unusual but amazing occurrence, since snowballs that require stage, after stage, after stage is just ONE insurmountable obstacle to turn them into water.

      If you want a simple thing to happen, hope for the "FB June miracle" to revisit Zynga.

      For WHATEVER reason, and who doesn't really matter, there were hundreds of millions thrown into the ongoing FB rally. The BIGGEST guns in the world held their ground on the FB June options chain, by keeping the pinpoint at $27 and not overwriting it to yield a more profitable pin point come that last friday of June.

      On June options, the BIGGEST guns in the world who wrote the $28 and $29 June calls got CRUSHED. They lost dozens of millions, if not more, watching those $28 and $29 June FB calls get -decimated-. Only by throwing around $150 million worth of bombs (haven't run the numbers, so let's just call it "a huge amount of money") did the guys who wrote the $30 calls manage to turn the $30 calls that were in the money on market close into worthless (so they could keep every penny they received upon writing those calls) by relentless pounding on the third Friday of June after hours in all out -war-.

      Tracker, that doesn't exactly happen every month, or hedgies would report huge losses on each year. ;)

      But an alternative of what to hope for is sure much simpler. Just hope that WHOEVER or WHATEVER throws enough at this Z rally that the facebook miracle is repeated, and the institutions with HUGE amounts of money at stake on the July and September monthly options pinning those months between $5 and $6 will have only two primary choices:
      1) They can hold the line at $5-6 pins they've written, and attempt to outgun the rally with the biggest bombs in the financial world and land PPS on 3rd friday July and 3rd Friday september within those points;
      or 2) with fresh memories of their or their brethren's facebook June options debacle, they can just get the hell out of the way as to the July and September Zynga options chains, so they don't risk being crushed by the masses, as is what happened with FB last month, and rewrite those $5-6 pins with higher pins. :)

      Sorry that surely this is even less incoherent than usual. :/

    • If hat happens, and it COULD, but it needs to NOW before July 20th gets closer, the pros failing to pin WOULD allow a more free rally this week, which might cause them to repin next week higher, with the next week higher than that ...

      and at SOME PPS the rally would be snowballing so freely that it would get the ***institutions' attention*** so it would be IN the institutions' interest to "repin" July monthlies higher. Then call it what you want, snowballs, dominos, whatever, the momentum upward would tend to create an object moving for what for you is the "correct" direction.

      Then if that we're snowballing enough, THAT would give TRUE incentive to the gorillas who still want Z -down- to not just figure "enough's enough" and join their usual brothers and RE-align for a SERIOUS rally, just as they were aligned for a serious crash. How high? That's their call. Over what time frame? That's their call.

      Tracker, that's a -lot- that has to happen to get what's written in stone for July and September to be overwritten in stone at a DIFFERENT point, since they rarely back down on OI.

      This weeks' rally, shorts bombs FAILING mid-day Friday, and shorts basically LOSING the war in HEAVY battle after hours Friday has given us a tiny baby snowball.

      IF -anybody-, doesn't matter who or how many are involved, throw ENOUGH positive snow NOW to take advantage of the pros' hesitance to write SERIOUS open interests on the next weeklies for the same old $6 pin.

      THEN that rally has to -keep- going strong enough to cause the pros to be reluctant to write $6 pins, or better yet, write great OI on a pin at $7. Then IF a weekly should pin WELL before Friday at $7? It doesn't mandate the BIGGEST guns to rewrite the current $5+ $6- pins on July monthlies.

      But when the BIGGEST guns cannot even -agree- whether to continue to smash it, or turn it around, that timing COULD be a nice little final straw to get the BIGGEST guns to rewrite July 20th higher than $5-$6, i.e., $7. Then Z is moving toward the point where the biggest guns who want to drive it into the ground, just relent, join the apes their quibbling with and force them to say "screw it. You're right. It's just easier for us to now align and drive this upward than to continue to smash it.

      How high? Over what time? That's up to them. But I see no reason in the world, that when they open the "print money machine" to drive it UP that they incorporated to stomp it DOWN, that the limit will be anything but where they see the point of diminishing returns to be during the next OBVIOUS rally.

      Sorry for being as confusing as hell, when the true answer to your question of "how high" over what time period, is "hell, Tracker, I DON'T KNOW, ask the guys who drive this exact same stock selling for $15.91 on March 2nd to an all time low."

      But if ANYTHING stops this snowball EARLY this week, and the pros get to writing HUGE OI on the weeklies at $6? The institutions that already have taken a strong stance on $5-6 on July AND September just won't have sufficient financial incentive to want to "repin" those months, and summer will be the usual drag.

      KILLER opportunity. WILL groups of people to money to throw at at topple the second domino and put fear of god into $6 calls writers NOW, before they get to writing $6 calls for the week and give them incentive 1) to not pin at $6, or BETTER, to pin next week at $7? And allow this rally snowball toward "critical mass," albeit, with more hurdles to overcome within a certain timeframe? Your guess is every bit as good as mine.

    • Closed at $6.00, what a surprise.

    • ZNGA's best chance to break $6 will be when retail quit buying the options and most of the activity is institutions selling those $6 options and the options market maker being the primary buyer..... We could be approaching that point...

      • 2 Replies to liveup40
      • ABSOLUTELY! Bullish guys and gals, you are virtually ENSURING that the result you want, for Z to rally freely for a few weeks except around the 3rd Friday of each month, WILL NOT happen as long as week by week, you keep creating MILLIONS of reasons the guys taking UNLIMITED risk to sell you that trash and throw bombs at the PPS to your detriment to protect themselves!

        WANT Z to rally freely? After today's shocker (a mere PRO dropping a bomb on a rally to protect himself, a rarity indeed), for God's sake. Follow liveup40's advice. Best. Z. Rally promoting. Advice. Ever.

        As to your latter point live, you know I respect, appreciate, and value your optimism. However, I don't share it, as I think it highly unlikely that droves of Darwin's lost children will even read your words, let alone adhere to them. Doesn't mean I don't HOPE you're right, however, even if that means I have to burn my incredible dedication to my virtual Z call-selling model as worthless, and unusable, as it will become if the RACE to RADICALLY OVERPAY for worthless Z options that pin Z down like a rabid dog EVERY week loses momentum.

      • Screw $6,give me $$20 +.

    • not that many for this week...mostly calls underwater so there's no need to push...which is good..because it's getting buying pressure...tuesday should be some more good news coming...

2.36+0.09(+3.96%)Oct 2 4:00 PMEDT