For the ZNGA longs plugging away in a world of virtual goods.
There are so many gray areas in the course of daily affairs, so I am attracted to the stock market for the simple reason that it is quite easy to determine the winners and losers at the end of the day. The world is reduced to a pair of black and red entries--profit and loss. The complexities of life can be summed up in these basics, at least while you participate in the casino. However, my little diversion is more than just about greasing the cogs, which is about all money is really good for. I want to see some divine form of justice unfurled, assured at the end of the day that even Bernie Madoff must go down for the full count. I might be tempted to short Pandora, a company which also has financial difficulties, but I love and use their product, and they most definitely have some very gifted musicologists on staff. I could short Yelp as well, but some of the reviews, particularly of low end dive bars, are often creatively written and have a high entertainment value. I find none of this to be true with the bull dog. It represents all the mindless conformity I most abhor in the modern world. It is the programming of the sheep. I proffer that the sole motive of the founder and his insider pals was to make a quick buck off of absolute hype best relegated to the rubbish bin. I felt this at $14.19, especially when I heard boy wonder (CEzero) explicate on how ZNGA would "connect the world." Not a world I want to live in. Again, going back to simple numbers, I have been correct about the primary trend of this beaten stock for quite some time. The bull dog's fate is already written in the stars. Karma Yoga remains in effect, though churning action might be expected with the release of earnings. I suspect the company itself will actively purchase the common shares next week in a vain effort to buy some time. A dramatic rise in volume is a given, but it would not surprise me if there is minimal price movement. That will be a temporary condition until the major averages come under pressure.
So cue up that Gram Parsons recording--Return of the Grievous Angel
"In My Hour of Darkness" It could very well become the ZNGA gambler anthem.
I think the Ides of March is a proper time to cover a ZNGA short. Everything else is background music.
Mr Odonnellm66, I have been reading your posts for a few weeks now and I respect your thoughts because you seem quite wise or at least very old. However, some things in this statement trouble me.
Firstly, your wish for "some divine form of justice" suggests that you have some sort of vendetta against people that have made a fortune by being involved in nefarious business activities. While I respect this sentiment, it seems out of place and inappropriate to apply this mentality to trading stocks. One can make money by trading a stock of a company run by a #$%$. Is Pincus a #$%$? Almost certainly. But I think the company is currently way undervalued. Is that morally wrong? It's up to the reader to decide.
Secondly, you mention stocks that you would like to short: Pandora and Yelp. However, you enjoy using their services. Is it not the first rule of trading that one must never let emotions and personal sentiment get involved? You do not like playing Zynga games. That's fine. But many millions of people do. So, is it not true that you must look past your personal preference and examine the broader picture when it comes to buying and selling stocks?
I look forward to your response, sir. I'm sure it will be reasonable, but I did find a few things in your post troubling.
Good luck everyone with the upcoming earnings statement and have a great weekend!
Yes, of course you are correct that one ought to be emotionally disjointed from any given trade, and any good poker player knows when to show his cards. I am guilty as charged. A surprising number of traders are not able to execute their mental stops, but it is generally the case that they let losses run and take profits prematurely. I suspect there are any number of people still holding this garbage at $10- and higher. In terms of pure probability, I should have covered in the $3.10 area, and simply moved on. Emotions and a fair measure of pride and ego rule the day, as I have learned to ever more dislike this company and everything it represents--no fundamental analysis, hype, fraud, arrogance, unbridled greed, and an entirely asinine "product"--virtual goods. The only possible hope is for ZNGA to establish a legal house of ill repute--online gambling--and there are huge political and bureaucratic stumbling blocks to this notion. Farmville and such will come, go, and be forgotten in a New York minute. The stock market can be a most humbling experience, so I readily admit that my view of ZNGA can be incorrect. I simply think there are those relatively rare confluences where numbers and emotions are on the same page, and this might be one of them. I learned long ago not to be afraid to leave some money on the table especially in a profitable position, so I could possibly be closed out at $3.50. It doesn't keep me awake at night. My current ideas:
1. Short Farcebook and ride it back to the all time low of $17-
2. I see a move to 3% on the ten year Treasury, so short bonds. TBT is a high risk trade because of leverage and resetting properties. $130 TBT wouldn't surprise me at all in 2013, but your timing must be damn near impeccable. In other words, you can guess the direction of interest rates correctly, and still lose money on TBT if there is much to and fro.
3. Short the major indexes, and I wouldn't be afraid to use leverage.
4. Dollar cost average physical silver, keeping in mind that any serious decline initially sinks all ships, as cash will have to be raised due to margin calls. The primary trend for silver is up.