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Zynga, Inc. Message Board

  • grabapairandgolong grabapairandgolong Sep 23, 2013 10:11 PM Flag

    Any input and/or opinions would be much appreciated....

    I invested 50k on March $3 calls about a month ago. I have made a little more than double. Here is what I'm thinking about doing (I am a gambler and usually go for the homerun). I'm thinking of dumping half and investing the 50k on Oct $4 calls...right now they are sitting at .08 cents...here is why and my gut feeling...for those who have followed Zynga for a long time, know it hasn't traded like this based on no news or at least the street noticing their switch to mobile. The charts are looking very strong. If it can keep this pace, my gut says 3.80-3.90 before Oct 14th CC (this would obviously need to keep current pace and momentum). Here is what I think happens on CC. Zynga will beat estimates. Again. More importantly, guidance will be higher. This is what investors are looking for. With the success so far from hit it rich, hidden shadows, and Castleville, they will have positives as far as games to talk about and making the transition to mobile (again, what the street wants to hear). The negatives could be write downs, but I think this is factored in. If the price can hover in the 3.80-3.90 range before the CC and they beat estimates and guide higher along with positive news on transition to mobile it could easily jump 15-20%. If they throw in the surprise...RMG, Xbox, or anything else it could jump 20-30%...this would put it in the 4.20-5.00 range...the options expire on that Friday and if there's good news and positive numbers, you would think investors would jump in that week...this would make the options worth 75k to 575k...this is obviously a huge gamble and risk but if any of you can provide your thoughts and/or feedback it would be much appreciated. Thank you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I would be shorting this here without a doubt

    • I just put up 600 contracts of my march $3 calls...I'm going for it...once they're sold I'll put in for the Oct $4...I may very well regret this

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Bump. Sometimes these message boards screw up

      Thank you for the replies and opinions everyone. 50k is a lot of money to me. But, like I said, I am a gambler and have no problem taking the risk for a homerun. I think I will see how the next 7-10 days play out. Thanks again!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thank you for the replies and opinions everyone. 50k is a lot of money to me. But, like I said, I am a gambler and have no problem taking the risk for a homerun. I think I will see how the next 7-10 days play out. Thanks again!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Keep in mind the period of volatility mentioned during the cc. I'm long all the way but am still anticipating some turbulence in the next coming months before we are in the clear. I plan on leaving my shares alone and not paying much attention to it until mid next year to keep my blood pressure in check.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Grab, I'd go for the full extent to maximize my profit if I were you. First of all, I am a gambler. This is your opportunity to make big $$$. There are several positive factors favoring your reasoning.

      Go, ZNGA!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Sorry, just re-read your post $50,000 -not $25,000. Even more reasons to sit back take a breath and think about the possibility that you could be wrong.

    • I guess what no one has mentioned is -- is 25,000 a lot of money to you? To me it is a fortune to have in an out and out gamble which could go south in a month. If it is not a lot of money then do what you want. If it is a lot of money then don't let the adrenaline rush you are feeling cloud your judgement.

    • Interesting analysis. If ZNGA does run to $3.90 before earnings I would think people would sell on the news. A 40% rise in the stock price $2.72-$3.90 in a month and a half, people will sell. Smart money will always sell into strength. GRPN went from $2.60ish to $6.00 then a 40% haircut in one day, down to $4.25 Smart money came back in at $4.25 and then GRPN never looked back. Also, every CC I have ever heard from ZNGA sucks. Management (Pincus) needs to learn how to speak on these CC's and at the last CC the new CEO didn't do much better. Management made it sound as though ZNGA was giving up on RMG and the stock took a hit, intentional? Maybe it was intentional and ZNGA finally used the rest of that $200mil buyback money and picked up all those shares on the cheap. If we have no strength till earnings and we trade sideways and consolidate, then we will probably gap up over $4.03 and run and fill the gap at $4.88. So I will see your .08 and raise you a couple of hundred contracts and hope ZNGA does a FB after earnings. 10x bagger.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I would not, and here's why. Zynga has gone up 24% since Aug 30 but its not because of any pending news. Its simply Twitter's pending IPO that has sent almost all internet stocks higher. In the same time period we have....................P up 31.7%, Grpn 17.5%, FB 14.3%, NFLX 6%, Yelp 26.5%, Dang 18.7%. I left out Gluu as it was an outlier due to its secondary offering bringing down the stock. As a result its unchanged since Aug 30.

      In short, we are in for a pretty healthy correction I believe. Also, a huge layoff is pending and will be announced a couple of weeks before the cc. I'm not sure how the market is going to react to that. Something that no one is talking about is that with the layoffs will come the closing of a LOT of offices. DM is almost through with his "90 days under the hood" and I believe he is set to make some drastic cuts. I'm all for it, but again, how the market reacts is the question.

      I would take my profits and watch from the sidelines for a few weeks.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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