$75 maximum value based on 25 P/E on $3.00 projected 2013 earnings
Wow. Mad Money's Jim Cramer, another eternal optimist, says this is not a good buy above $75. I can't believe he's more pessimistic than even I, a confirmed WFM hater, am. Maybe should consider grabbing those put options a little quicker than my high target of $95???
Cramer's a fool about 80% of the time. He chases winners and grabs on way too late. However, his analysis of WFM appears to be quite logical, rational, and accurate. I didn't realize expected 2013 earnings were so low. A 25 P/E, even for this "high flyer", is really pushing the envelope in a sector where P/E over 16 is exorbitant. I'll continue to play the short side of this until it gets into, at least, the low $70's.
You are correct. One key difference, however. AMZN has effectively no competition. WFM is going to run into Chipotle (CMG) syndrome. I think the transition is under way presently. Reasons are numerous, but key are:
1. The Fresh Market, Trader Joe's, and the inevitable catching up (or getting out of the way) by Safeway, Kroger, Harris Teeter, Supervalue, et. al.
2. People are going to eventually, albeit slowly, catch on that organic and "natural" is bull manure, which will resulting in diminishing same store sales (unless they modify their model).
3. The economy is not going to gain strength fast enough for WFM to maintain a growth/expansion rate that will justify an extreme P/E (again, relative to the fast closing competition).