1st: Grind - Thanks for telling us your plans to sell. I started to jump out yesterday and didn't. good to know I'm not the only one hanging on...for the moment at least.
2nd: I dont believe, right now, that EEV will get much momentum up, especially since all the major commentators/analysts are touting FXI, EEM, etc.
Would like some good opinions: If the market moves several hundred points further up (over the next several weeks) I believe EEV could be in the 20's. After inauguration, If the Dow finds its way back to 8000, and the emerging markets stay the same, with a positive outlook, I think it will be hard for EEV to see 70, moved by market momentum only. (yes, I know EEV is an index on the emerging mkts and not the Dow).
What do you guys think? I'd like to ride this out for now as I need to hold 3 more weeks to avoid the wash sale rules but will sell if there is no chance of this ever coming back.
Hey piggy I know that Marlenaf once used or has used a Web site to help her with her trades....I would seriously recomend you taking that path before your out of loot...I'm sure she will help you out, and maybe recomend some site...You will have to trust the site....but they will tell you when to buy and when to sell..everyday.....
EEV needs some market volatility to get to 80+. If you think the market is going to be dull in the near term, it will be difficult for EEV to hit 80.
My personal feeling is that this is a bear rally, a counter-move to the relentless downside action from September through mid-November.
Big money moves the markets. Hedge fund redemptions and closings will continue, and, thanks to Madoff, are likely to spike as we approach the end of the quarter. Once this rally is considered questionable, support will drop quickly as no one wants to be left holding the bag. There are no signs that the recession is waning and therefore holding on to stocks now is mostly a desire to recoup (or reduce) losses. As I've been saying for weeks now, I expect a short-term low to come near Jan 1. My best guess is Jan 2 or Jan 5.
As for EEV, there have been 3 times in Oct and Nov when it has spiked quickly and sharply. 9/30 - 10/9 +63.3%, 10/20 - 10/27 +69.4% and 11/13 - 11/20 +66.8%. Those are moves based on closing prices, not intra-day lows to highs. There have been other moves of over 30% in just a few days. The cooresponding Dow moves have been -20.93%, -11.76% and -14.5%. Take the median move of -14.5% from yesterday's close and the Dow would need to hit 7630, which would roughly make a double bottom with the Nov 20 low.
This seems plausible to me. A +66% move on EEV from yesterday's close would be 81.34. In other words, going over 80 is reasonably possible.
My thinking is that once options week ends the market will be moved by redemptions and tax-loss selling. That initial round of selling will be further enhanced by the fear that the market bottom is not in place. Basically, I see the sell-off of 11/13-11/20 repeating. It was short, sharp and not sparked by any particularly important event.
Once the bottom is tested I expect Obama-mania will kick in and a significant rally will follow through January and February.
I am starting to examine the new 3x ETFs for trading and I may switch to some of them instead of EEV to play that rally.
In the meantime, I am comfortable holding EEV at 68.68 through Jan 5th or so.
Good luck to you. JWF
Don't you think it interesting to note that this article was written back in 2002 yet is spot on?
"To divine the future review the past."
The Chinese were the first to experiment with paper/fiat money and it failed as has every other such experimentation since because by their very structure they are intended to fail.
It usually takes about a century to zero out the currency as the central bank inflates the money supply. This is essentially a tax on the citizenry(ours as well as the entire world as the dollar remains the de facto world currency)
Read "Gold & Economic Freedom" (only 5 pages)
This brilliant essay was written by none other than Sir(or is it Lord?) Alan Greenspan back in 1966.
(Read the Gildedopinion site as this offers some insight into Greenspan) The article itself is not edited.
Greenspan knew that going back to gold standard or quasi-gold, etc. would constrain government spending and he would most likely have been assassinated so he went along with the fiat paradigm already in place and even expanded upon it.
Notice today after briefly trying to persuade us he was innocent of wrong doings, he is nowhere to be found.
Expirmenting. Common consensus on this board is that because of lost time value in etf's; it is better to short the inverse of the direction you feel the market is going. Robo educated me on this yesterday. It does make perfect sense; especially if you've been watching EEV's price action the last three weeks. Thankfully I have not played EEV the last few weeks.
I trade the trend. Sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right. I don't profess to have the answer to the economy. I am looking for a trade for the day; not for the year. I covered at 81.25. Made a big .25. But that wasn't the point. I just wanted to try to short something since I never have. I think the market creeps up to S&P 1000 by Xmas. Thanks for the advice Robo, you are right, it is very easy. My next position will be a little more lucrative than .25; I hope.
Perhaps should not be offering advice as I am no longer in the markets but we can clearly see that we are in a competitive currency devaluation paradigm worldwide.
If I were in the markets I would be short period. GRZZX is a fund we owned that I regret selling but we used all stock proceeds last year to buy silver and gold bullion.
I sure sleep better.
"Only gold is money and nothing else." JP Morgan
All the world monies are in the process of being destroyed as befits the fiat paradigm.
Remember even if you make a lot of "money" in the markets by being short or long, the dollar is dying and could possibly even collapse, so when you sell your positions (and you know taxes must increase mightly going forward), how much money (in dying dollars) will you really have made?
Safest position I know of is to not own any dollar denominated assets or any world currency for that matter as they are all fiat and instead convert cash to gold ASAP while you still can.
But then again, who am I to advise anyone?
You chance to sell without too many loses was last week with the triple digit drop..
I would just wait for another big drop and move on to something more attractive...
I'm not shorting today, markets are in uncertain territory..