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Sanmina Corporation Message Board

  • sonic_trader sonic_trader Mar 21, 2001 8:16 PM Flag

    Good time to buy SANM? Maybe....

    WOW - look where SANM closed today: 22 3/8. This price hasn't been seen since 4/18/00! On that day it had a H/L/C of 25 3/4, 21 1/16 & 24 11/16 respectively. (H/L/C = High/Low/Close for those who are wondering).

    Seems as though SANM has come full circle from 04/2000 to 03/2001 with lots of trading opportunities in between, both up and down.

    One thing I would like to point out: it is not unusual for SANM to have 5 point trading ranges within a day. It is not unusual to see SANM drop 6-10 points within 2-3 days. It is also not unusual to see SANM jump 6-10 points in 2-3 days. Is it going to happen again? You better believe it. Is it going to happen tomorrow? I hope so, but I honestly don't know, but I'll be watching.

    As for the recent downgrades of SANM, I say "So What". I think if the analysts really knew where the stock price was headed their downgrades would have come weeks ago. Ever notice how many times a downgrade comes when a stock hits bottom, or an upgrade when a stock is nearing its top?

    One question that I think deserves serious consideration is this: Is SANM, as a company, in worse shape today than it was 1 year ago? There can be much debate about this, but I say No. According to the financial information I have, last year SANM earned 82 cents per share. This year the average estimate is $1.39 per share. If SANM was trading in the low $20's when forward looking earnings were 82 cents, isn't it worth buying again in the low $20's when forward looking earnings are $1.39?

    Sure, just about every company I look at has lowered estimates for the next couple of quarters and they are all feeling the pain. But, you know what? The estimates were too freakin' high to begin with. I think SANM is right where it started before the stock price got out of hand. I see buying at April, 2000 prices as an opportunity - one that I am acting on.

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